Patriots threw on 73% of early downs in Week 9 and the offense stalled

A 73 percent early-down pass rate, a reshuffled line and a thinner secondary frame the Patriots' trip to Detroit in Week 10.

By the NumbersOffense-0.14Offense EPA/play · Week 9

By Patriots Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 10:00 AM ET2 min read

73%: the early-down pass rate in Week 9 was the highest of the season

The Patriots passed on 73 percent of their early downs in Week 9. A week earlier the figure was 41 percent, a swing of 32 points. The offense finished the day at minus-0.135 EPA per play, against a season mark of 0.041. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each play changes a team's scoring chances.

The pass-heavy approach is not the whole problem. In Week 7 the early-down pass rate was 68 percent and the offense produced 0.185 EPA per play. Week 9 came with a 44 percent success rate, two points under the season figure of 46 percent. New England is 5-4 and on a one-game losing streak.

68 points: Morgan Moses went from 13 percent of snaps to 81 percent

The offensive line has been rearranged. Tackle Morgan Moses played 13 percent of the snaps in Week 6 and 81 percent in Week 9, a gain of 68 points. Tackle Caleb Lomu moved the other way, from 88 percent to 35 percent over the same stretch.

That matters because the ground game has little margin. The Patriots rank 21st in rushing offense. Rhamondre Stevenson has 399 yards at minus-0.05 EPA per play with a 39 percent success rate, and TreVeyon Henderson has 203 yards at minus-0.25 and 33 percent. Over the last three weeks Corey Kiner has 106 yards on 19 plays at minus-0.02, with Stevenson at minus-0.03 on 31 plays.

0.289: the defense allowed its most EPA per play of the year in Week 9

Opponents averaged 0.289 EPA per play against New England in Week 9. The previous high was 0.233 in Week 3. The season figure is 0.043, which ranks 23rd, and the pass defense ranks 24th. The run defense sits 13th.

The cornerback group changed shape in the same stretch. Carlton Davis played 97 percent of the snaps in Week 8 and 53 percent in Week 9, a drop of 44 points. Charles Woods fell from 65 percent in Week 6 to 3 percent in Week 8. Kyle Williams, a wide receiver, rose from 37 percent to 78 percent between Weeks 6 and 9.

0.75: DeMario Douglas is the efficient target, and Eli Raridon is not

Drake Maye has 2,181 yards and 0.16 EPA per play on the season, with a completion rate 6.7 points above expectation. Over the last three weeks that rate is 10.1 points above expectation, though his EPA per play is 0.09.

The targets behind that number are uneven. DeMario Douglas has 0.75 EPA per target over the last three weeks on a 19 percent target share. Hunter Henry sits at 0.79 with an 85 percent success rate on 13 targets. Eli Raridon draws 16 percent of the targets and returns minus-0.23 per target.

What to watch

The Patriots play at the Detroit Lions on Sunday, Nov 15, at 9:30 AM ET on Fox. They are the seventh seed in the AFC and trail the Bills, who are 7-1, in the division. The measures to track are the early-down pass rate against the 41 percent of Week 8, and the snap counts of Moses and Davis.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.