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139 plays, one strand. Jaguars won without the lead ever changing hands; Patriots peaked at 60% to win, Jaguars at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for JAX, down for NE, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Patriots peaked at 60% to win, Jaguars at 100%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Jaguars win, play by play. High = JAX in control, low = NE in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for JAX on offense, down for NE; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Jaguars ↑
Patriots ↓The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: NE on the left, JAX on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 5.8 expected points against Patriots.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 3:58 · NE · Fumble lost−5.8 EP
10-D.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at JAX 38.
- 2Q2 11:13 · JAX · Interception−5.4 EP
16-T.Lawrence pass short middle intended for 85-B.Strange INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones (23-J.Reed) at JAX 33. 25-M.Jones to JAX 21 for 12 yards
- 3Q2 1:02 · NE · Interception−4.5 EP
10-D.Maye pass short right intended for 86-E.Chism INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Hunter [23-F.Oluokun] at JAX -9. Touchback.
- 4Q3 13:23 · NE · Run+3.6 EP
38-R.Stevenson up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on JAX-6-A.Johnson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
- 5Q3 9:54 · NE · Missed field goal−4.0 EP
8-A.Borregales 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
- 6Q3 2:16 · JAX · Completion+2.9 EP
16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 3-J.Meyers to NE 5 for 13 yards (7-C.Davis). PENALTY on NE-7-C.Davis, Face Mask, 3 yards, enforced at NE 5
- 7Q3 1:13 · JAX · Touchdown+3.9 EP
16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 11-P.Washington for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
- 8Q3 1:03 · NE · Interception−7.1 EP
10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 18-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 4-J.Jones at NE 36. 4-J.Jones pushed ob at NE 5 for 31 yards (10-D.Maye)
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
6@35Week 3Changes the winnerIf the Patriots had fallen on their own fumble
Q1 3:58 10-D.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at JAX 38.
35@14
27@30
17@19
16@24
24@31
31@33
34@31
35@27
