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148 plays, one strand. Bills won after 1 lead change; Chargers peaked at 83% to win, Bills at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for BUF, down for LAC, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom line1 lead change; Chargers peaked at 83% to win, Bills at 100%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Bills win, play by play. High = BUF in control, low = LAC in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for BUF on offense, down for LAC; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Bills ↑
Chargers ↓The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: LAC on the left, BUF on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 5.4 expected points against Bills.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 14:53 · BUF · Fumble lost−5.4 EP
4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 47 for 4 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). FUMBLES (92-J.Eboigbe), RECOVERED by LAC-0-D.Henley at BUF 47.
- 2Q1 3:31 · BUF · Interception−4.6 EP
17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Smith at BUF 44. 22-G.Smith to BUF 43 for 1 yard (88-D.Knox).
- 3Q2 10:26 · LAC · Missed field goal−3.6 EP
11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
- 4Q2 0:26 · BUF · Completion+3.6 EP
17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman to LAC 1 for 37 yards (24-R.Shelley).
- 5Q3 9:31 · LAC · Completion+2.9 EP
10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at BUF 6 for 19 yards [9-B.Chubb].
- 6Q4 15:00 · BUF · Fumble lost−4.2 EP
17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the passer was down by contact ruling, and the play wa
- 7Q4 13:38 · LAC · Interception−5.8 EP
10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF 1. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to BUF 4
- 8Q4 11:15 · BUF · Completion+4.4 EP
17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
16@24Week 3Changes the winnerIf the Chargers had stopped that fourth-and-6
Q4 11:15 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.
35@14
18@21
17@19
31@33
7@12
30@36
34@31
7@27
