Week 3 · 2026Falcons 35 · 14 Packers
147 plays, one strand. Falcons won after 1 lead change; Falcons peaked at 100% to win, Packers at 77%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for GB, down for ATL, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom line1 lead change; Falcons peaked at 100% to win, Packers at 77%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Packers win, play by play. High = GB in control, low = ATL in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for GB on offense, down for ATL; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: ATL on the left, GB on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 4.9 expected points against Falcons.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 13:33 · ATL · Interception−4.9 EP
9-M.Penix pass short middle intended for 4-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 40. 29-X.McKinney to GB 45 for 5 yards (5-D.London).
- 2Q1 9:18 · GB · Completion+4.5 EP
10-J.Love pass deep right to 0-M.Golden to ATL 43 for 45 yards (21-M.Hughes).
- 3Q1 3:06 · ATL · Run+3.7 EP
7-Bi.Robinson left end to GB 5 for 55 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 51-D.Dennis-Sutton).
- 4Q2 1:02 · ATL · Touchdown+3.6 EP
9-M.Penix pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 5Q3 10:02 · GB · Incomplete−3.6 EP
10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.
- 6Q4 14:17 · ATL · Completion+5.2 EP
9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London pushed ob at GB 16 for 68 yards (2-B.Cisse).
- 7Q4 9:29 · GB · Completion+3.6 EP
10-J.Love pass short middle to 23-S.Moore to ATL 29 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).
- 8Q4 1:18 · GB · Interception−4.3 EP
10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 18-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 31-X.Watts [54-B.Dorlus] at ATL 3. 31-X.Watts to ATL 20 for 17 yards.
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the Packers had converted that fourth-and-1
Q3 10:02 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.