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InjuryQuentin Lake: Active → Cleared13 h agoWeek 3 · 2026Vikings 23 · 16 Buccaneers
153 plays, one strand. Vikings won without the lead ever changing hands; Vikings peaked at 97% to win, Buccaneers at 64%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for TB, down for MIN, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Vikings peaked at 97% to win, Buccaneers at 64%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Buccaneers win, play by play. High = TB in control, low = MIN in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for TB on offense, down for MIN; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Buccaneers ↑
Vikings ↓The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: MIN on the left, TB on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 6.9 expected points against Buccaneers.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 9:00 · TB · Punt−6.9 EP
9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yard
- 2Q1 6:50 · TB · Touchdown+3.4 EP
6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 17-T.Hurst for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 3Q2 8:42 · TB · Completion+3.0 EP
6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to MIN 7 for 37 yards (44-J.Metellus; 55-E.Wilson).
- 4Q2 4:17 · MIN · Touchdown+5.4 EP
1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea].
- 5Q3 8:41 · MIN · Interception−4.5 EP
1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 91-A.Robinson (50-V.Vea) at MIN 22. 91-A.Robinson to MIN 22 for no gain
- 6Q4 10:49 · TB · Completion+3.2 EP
6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (44-J.Metellus; 7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Unnecessary Rou
- 7Q4 9:06 · TB · Field goal+2.3 EP
4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
- 8Q4 3:15 · MIN · Field goal+2.5 EP
16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
23@16Week 3Changes the winnerIf the 56-yard kick had missed
Q4 3:15 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
35@14
18@21
27@30
17@19
16@24
31@33
34@31
35@27
