Bills at Broncos: Week 16 preview, odds and injuries

Week 16 · Fri, Dec 25 · Empower Field at Mile High4:30 PM ET

at4:30 PMET · Netflix

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 2:59 PM ET

The Buffalo Bills (7-1) visit the Denver Broncos (7-2) on Fri, Dec 25, 4:30 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO (Week 16, 2026 season), on Netflix.

When and where is Bills vs Broncos?

Fri, Dec 25, 4:30 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO. TV: Netflix.

Who is injured for Bills vs Broncos?

Bills: Tyrell Shavers (WR, out, knee - acl), Alec Anderson (OT, questionable, ankle), Dion Dawkins (OT, questionable, ribs) and Greg Gaines (DT, questionable, calf). Broncos: Brandon Jones (S, out, hamstring), Kris Abrams-Draine (CB, out, ankle), Talanoa Hufanga (S, out, ankle), Jaylen Waddle (WR, questionable, concussion) and Riley Moss (CB, questionable, concussion).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Bills at Broncos: Week 16 preview”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-12-25-buf-at-den (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

Regular season through week 15 · rank out of 32

Where this game will be decided

1Bills run game vs Broncos run defense
The Bills' run game ranks 7th in EPA per rush (+0.00, 227 rushes) against a Broncos run defense ranked 29th (-0.02 allowed, 225 rushes faced).
7thBUF offense22 spots apart29thDEN defense
2Broncos pass protection vs Bills pass rush
The Broncos' pass protection ranks 3rd in sack rate (3.5% sacked, 310 dropbacks) against a Bills pass rush ranked 21st (5.2% of dropbacks, 328 dropbacks faced).
3rdDEN offense18 spots apart21stBUF defense
3Bills third-down defense vs Broncos third-down offense
The Bills' third-down defense ranks 14th in third-down conversion rate (39.0% allowed, 100 third downs faced) and faces a Broncos third-down offense ranked 31st (33.6%, 110 third downs).
31stDEN offense17 spots apart14thBUF defense

When the Bills have the ballEdge BUF · +22 ranks

BUF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDEN pass defense

4th+0.25277 dropbacks

BUF +8

-0.00 allowed383 dropbacks faced12th

BUF run gameEPA per rushDEN run defense

7th+0.00227 rushes

BUF +22

-0.02 allowed225 rushes faced29th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Broncos have the ballNo big edge

DEN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackBUF pass defense

20th+0.02310 dropbacks

+0.05 allowed328 dropbacks faced16th

DEN run gameEPA per rushBUF run defense

15th-0.07207 rushes

-0.11 allowed176 rushes faced8th

Third downEdge BUF · +17 ranks

BUF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDEN third-down defense

5th45.7%92 third downs

BUF +15

41.5% allowed130 third downs faced20th

DEN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateBUF third-down defense

31st33.6%110 third downs

BUF +17

39.0% allowed100 third downs faced14th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge DEN · +13 ranks

BUF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDEN red-zone defense

9th65%34 trips

52% allowed29 trips faced12th

DEN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateBUF red-zone defense

8th65%26 trips

DEN +13

63% allowed30 trips faced21st

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge BUF · +16 ranks

BUF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDEN defense against big plays

1st13.5%504 plays

BUF +16

9.5% allowed608 plays faced17th

DEN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateBUF defense against big plays

30th7.0%517 plays

BUF +14

9.5% allowed504 plays faced16th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge DEN · +18 ranks

BUF pass protectionsack rateDEN pass rush

18th6.1% sacked277 dropbacks

6.8% of dropbacks383 dropbacks faced12th

DEN pass protectionsack rateBUF pass rush

3rd3.5% sacked310 dropbacks

DEN +18

5.2% of dropbacks328 dropbacks faced21st

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge DEN · +10 ranks

BUF ball securityturnovers per gameDEN takeaway defense

23rd1.5 giveaways a game8 games

DEN +10

1.3 takeaways a game9 games13th

DEN ball securityturnovers per gameBUF takeaway defense

4th0.7 giveaways a game9 games

1.5 takeaways a game8 games5th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

AbsencesBUF 0 · DEN 3 regulars out or doubtful

Bills4 listed

0 of them are regulars ruled out or doubtful (60%+ of their unit's snaps across 3+ weeks on the field).

QDion DawkinsOT99% offense · 7 wk
QGreg GainesDT32% defense · 6 wk
OUTTyrell ShaversWRno snaps
QAlec AndersonOTno snaps

Broncos5 listed

3 of them are regulars ruled out or doubtful (60%+ of their unit's snaps across 3+ weeks on the field).

OUTTalanoa HufangaS93% defense · 5 wk
OUTBrandon JonesS91% defense · 8 wk
QRiley MossCB75% defense · 8 wk
OUTKris Abrams-DraineCB72% defense · 8 wk
QJaylen WaddleWR59% offense · 9 wk

Snap share is the average of the weeks each player was on the field this season. Full injury report ↓

Rest & travelBUF +1 day of rest · BUF travels 1,373 mi

AwayBills

6days since last game

1,373miles to get here

2time zones

Last: Sat wk 15 vs CHI · 12,423 mi flown this season

2 time zones

Rest edge+1BUF dayTravel gap 1,373 mi

HomeBroncos

5days since last game

0miles · home

0time zones

Last: Sun wk 15 at LV · Las Vegas · 8,549 mi flown this season

Short week · 5 days

League splits for these situations ↓

Sample: BUF 8 games, 504 offensive and 504 defensive plays · DEN 9 games, 517 offensive and 608 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Season to date · rank out of 32