Bills at Patriots: Week 13 preview, odds and injuries

Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6 · Gillette Stadium4:25 PM ET

at4:25 PMET · CBS

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 2:59 PM ET

The Buffalo Bills (7-1) visit the New England Patriots (5-4) on Sun, Dec 6, 4:25 PM ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA (Week 13, 2026 season), on CBS.

When and where is Bills vs Patriots?

Sun, Dec 6, 4:25 PM ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. TV: CBS.

Who is injured for Bills vs Patriots?

Bills: Tyrell Shavers (WR, out, knee - acl), Alec Anderson (OT, questionable, ankle), Dion Dawkins (OT, questionable, ribs) and Greg Gaines (DT, questionable, calf). Patriots: Ben Brown (C, doubtful, knee), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, doubtful, knee), A.J. Brown (WR, questionable, knee), Brenden Schooler (S, questionable, hamstring), Carlton Davis III (CB, questionable, knee) and Charles Woods (CB, questionable, hamstring) (plus 2 more).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Bills at Patriots: Week 13 preview”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-12-06-buf-at-ne (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

Regular season through week 12 · rank out of 32

Where this game will be decided

1Bills big-play offense vs Patriots defense against big plays
The Bills' big-play offense ranks 1st in explosive-play rate (13.5%, 504 plays) against a Patriots defense against big plays ranked 24th (10.1% allowed, 535 plays faced).
1stBUF offense23 spots apart24thNE defense
2Bills dropback offense vs Patriots pass defense
The Bills' dropback offense ranks 4th in EPA per dropback (+0.25, 277 dropbacks) against a Patriots pass defense ranked 24th (+0.14 allowed, 323 dropbacks faced).
4thBUF offense20 spots apart24thNE defense
3Bills takeaway defense vs Patriots ball security
The Bills' takeaway defense ranks 5th in turnovers per game (1.5 takeaways a game, 8 games) and faces a Patriots ball security ranked 31st (2.1 giveaways a game, 9 games).
31stNE offense26 spots apart5thBUF defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Bills have the ballEdge BUF · +20 ranks

BUF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNE pass defense

4th+0.25277 dropbacks

BUF +20

+0.14 allowed323 dropbacks faced24th

BUF run gameEPA per rushNE run defense

7th+0.00227 rushes

-0.10 allowed212 rushes faced13th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Patriots have the ballEdge BUF · +13 ranks

NE dropback offenseEPA per dropbackBUF pass defense

10th+0.15330 dropbacks

+0.05 allowed328 dropbacks faced16th

NE run gameEPA per rushBUF run defense

21st-0.12217 rushes

BUF +13

-0.11 allowed176 rushes faced8th

Third downNo big edge

BUF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNE third-down defense

5th45.7%92 third downs

37.6% allowed109 third downs faced10th

NE third-down offensethird-down conversion rateBUF third-down defense

9th43.4%106 third downs

39.0% allowed100 third downs faced14th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

BUF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNE red-zone defense

9th65%34 trips

50% allowed32 trips faced11th

NE red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateBUF red-zone defense

21st54%26 trips

63% allowed30 trips faced21st

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge BUF · +23 ranks

BUF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNE defense against big plays

1st13.5%504 plays

BUF +23

10.1% allowed535 plays faced24th

NE big-play offenseexplosive-play rateBUF defense against big plays

3rd11.5%547 plays

NE +13

9.5% allowed504 plays faced16th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge NE · +13 ranks

BUF pass protectionsack rateNE pass rush

18th6.1% sacked277 dropbacks

NE +13

7.7% of dropbacks323 dropbacks faced5th

NE pass protectionsack rateBUF pass rush

17th6.1% sacked330 dropbacks

5.2% of dropbacks328 dropbacks faced21st

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge BUF · +26 ranks

BUF ball securityturnovers per gameNE takeaway defense

23rd1.5 giveaways a game8 games

0.9 takeaways a game9 games26th

NE ball securityturnovers per gameBUF takeaway defense

31st2.1 giveaways a game9 games

BUF +26

1.5 takeaways a game8 games5th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

AbsencesBUF 0 · NE 2 regulars out or doubtful

Bills4 listed

0 of them are regulars ruled out or doubtful (60%+ of their unit's snaps across 3+ weeks on the field).

QDion DawkinsOT99% offense · 7 wk
QGreg GainesDT32% defense · 6 wk
OUTTyrell ShaversWRno snaps
QAlec AndersonOTno snaps

Patriots8 listed

2 of them are regulars ruled out or doubtful (60%+ of their unit's snaps across 3+ weeks on the field).

QWill CampbellOT90% offense · 9 wk
QCarlton Davis IIICB87% defense · 5 wk
QA.J. BrownWR70% offense · 3 wk
DBen BrownC67% offense · 7 wk
DRhamondre StevensonRB64% offense · 9 wk
QCharles WoodsCB44% defense · 8 wk
QTreVeyon HendersonRB33% offense · 6 wk
QBrenden SchoolerS9% defense · 5 wk

Snap share is the average of the weeks each player was on the field this season. Full injury report ↓

Rest & travelBUF +3 days of rest · BUF travels 386 mi

AwayBills

10days since last game

386miles to get here

0time zones

Last: Thu wk 12 vs KC · 12,423 mi flown this season

Normal week

Rest edge+3BUF daysTravel gap 386 mi

HomePatriots

7days since last game

0miles · home

0time zones

Last: Sun wk 12 at LAC · Inglewood · 11,863 mi flown this season

Normal week

League splits for these situations ↓

Sample: BUF 8 games, 504 offensive and 504 defensive plays · NE 9 games, 547 offensive and 535 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Season to date · rank out of 32