Bills at Dolphins: Week 17 preview, odds and injuries

Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3 · Hard Rock Stadium1 PM ET

at1 PMET · CBS

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 3:32 PM ET

The Buffalo Bills (7-1) visit the Miami Dolphins (1-7) on Sun, Jan 3, 1 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL (Week 17, 2026 season), on CBS.

When and where is Bills vs Dolphins?

Sun, Jan 3, 1 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. TV: CBS.

Who is injured for Bills vs Dolphins?

Bills: Tyrell Shavers (WR, out, knee - acl), Alec Anderson (OT, questionable, ankle), Dion Dawkins (OT, questionable, ribs) and Greg Gaines (DT, questionable, calf). Dolphins: Darrell Baker Jr. (CB, out, undisclosed), Zach Sieler (DT, out, biceps), Jaylen Wright (RB, questionable, quadriceps), Malik Willis (QB, questionable, groin) and Will Kacmarek (TE, questionable, quadriceps).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Bills at Dolphins: Week 17 preview”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2027-01-03-buf-at-mia (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

Regular season through week 16 · rank out of 32

Where this game will be decided

1Bills dropback offense vs Dolphins pass defense
The Bills' dropback offense ranks 4th in EPA per dropback (+0.25, 277 dropbacks) against a Dolphins pass defense ranked 32nd (+0.26 allowed, 247 dropbacks faced).
4thBUF offense28 spots apart32ndMIA defense
2Bills third-down offense vs Dolphins third-down defense
The Bills' third-down offense ranks 5th in third-down conversion rate (45.7%, 92 third downs) against a Dolphins third-down defense ranked 31st (50.0% allowed, 94 third downs faced).
5thBUF offense26 spots apart31stMIA defense
3Bills big-play offense vs Dolphins defense against big plays
The Bills' big-play offense ranks 1st in explosive-play rate (13.5%, 504 plays) against a Dolphins defense against big plays ranked 21st (9.9% allowed, 454 plays faced).
1stBUF offense20 spots apart21stMIA defense

When the Bills have the ballEdge BUF · +28 ranks

BUF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackMIA pass defense

4th+0.25277 dropbacks

BUF +28

+0.26 allowed247 dropbacks faced32nd

BUF run gameEPA per rushMIA run defense

7th+0.00227 rushes

BUF +15

-0.06 allowed207 rushes faced22nd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Dolphins have the ballEdge BUF · +14 ranks

MIA dropback offenseEPA per dropbackBUF pass defense

23rd-0.02257 dropbacks

+0.05 allowed328 dropbacks faced16th

MIA run gameEPA per rushBUF run defense

22nd-0.13189 rushes

BUF +14

-0.11 allowed176 rushes faced8th

Third downEdge BUF · +26 ranks

BUF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateMIA third-down defense

5th45.7%92 third downs

BUF +26

50.0% allowed94 third downs faced31st

MIA third-down offensethird-down conversion rateBUF third-down defense

11th42.6%101 third downs

39.0% allowed100 third downs faced14th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

BUF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateMIA red-zone defense

9th65%34 trips

59% allowed32 trips faced16th

MIA red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateBUF red-zone defense

25th50%20 trips

63% allowed30 trips faced21st

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge BUF · +20 ranks

BUF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateMIA defense against big plays

1st13.5%504 plays

BUF +20

9.9% allowed454 plays faced21st

MIA big-play offenseexplosive-play rateBUF defense against big plays

6th10.3%446 plays

MIA +10

9.5% allowed504 plays faced16th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge BUF · +10 ranks

BUF pass protectionsack rateMIA pass rush

18th6.1% sacked277 dropbacks

BUF +10

4.9% of dropbacks247 dropbacks faced28th

MIA pass protectionsack rateBUF pass rush

30th9.3% sacked257 dropbacks

BUF +9

5.2% of dropbacks328 dropbacks faced21st

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge BUF · +14 ranks

BUF ball securityturnovers per gameMIA takeaway defense

23rd1.5 giveaways a game8 games

0.9 takeaways a game8 games28th

MIA ball securityturnovers per gameBUF takeaway defense

19th1.3 giveaways a game8 games

BUF +14

1.5 takeaways a game8 games5th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

AbsencesBUF 0 · MIA 1 regulars out or doubtful

Bills4 listed

0 of them are regulars ruled out or doubtful (60%+ of their unit's snaps across 3+ weeks on the field).

QDion DawkinsOT99% offense · 7 wk
QGreg GainesDT32% defense · 6 wk
OUTTyrell ShaversWRno snaps
QAlec AndersonOTno snaps

Dolphins5 listed

1 of them is a regular ruled out or doubtful (60%+ of their unit's snaps across 3+ weeks on the field).

QMalik WillisQB100% offense · 8 wk
OUTZach SielerDT76% defense · 8 wk
QWill KacmarekTE41% offense · 8 wk
QJaylen WrightRB14% offense · 6 wk
OUTDarrell Baker Jr.CBno snaps

Snap share is the average of the weeks each player was on the field this season. Full injury report ↓

Rest & travelBUF +2 days of rest · BUF travels 1,165 mi

AwayBills

9days since last game

1,165miles to get here

0time zones

Last: Fri wk 16 at DEN · Denver · 12,423 mi flown this season

Normal week

Rest edge+2BUF daysTravel gap 1,165 mi

HomeDolphins

7days since last game

0miles · home

0time zones

Last: Sun wk 16 vs LAC · 14,622 mi flown this season

Normal week

League splits for these situations ↓

Sample: BUF 8 games, 504 offensive and 504 defensive plays · MIA 8 games, 446 offensive and 454 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Season to date · rank out of 32