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WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 9 · 2026Cowboys 27 · 23 Colts

160 plays, one strand. Cowboys won after 4 lead changes; Cowboys peaked at 87% to win, Colts at 76%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for IND, down for DAL, as long as the yards it gained.

Bottom line4 lead changes; Cowboys peaked at 87% to win, Colts at 76%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Colts win, play by play. High = IND in control, low = DAL in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for IND on offense, down for DAL; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Colts ↑Cowboys ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1FUMTDTDTDTDFUMFUMTDINTIND ↑ HOMEDAL ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: DAL on the left, IND on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
DALIND
70Plays59
509Yards271
12Explosive plays2
3Offensive TDs2
2Turnovers2
87%Peak win prob.76%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
DALFG34yINDPunt8yDALFUM2yINDTD19yDALTD75yINDPunt7yDALPunt1yINDPunt-8yDALPunt18yINDPunt9yDALPunt21yINDPunt32yDALTD75yIND–12yINDPunt6yDALPunt13yINDFG29yDALFG60yINDTD60yDALFUM93yINDFUM17yDALPunt24yINDFG52yDALFG ✕38yINDFG28yDALTD55yINDINT0y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.7 expected points for Cowboys.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 13:46 · DAL · Completion

    4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 18-J.Mingo to IND 30 for 23 yards (33-K.Harris; 30-H.Wohler).

    +2.7 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 8:59 · DAL · Fumble lost

    4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 16 for -5 yards (97-L.Latu). FUMBLES (97-L.Latu) [97-L.Latu], RECOVERED by IND-55-C.Curry at DAL 25. 55-C.Curry t

    −4.3 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 14:13 · DAL · Touchdown

    4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +3.9 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 0:28 · DAL · Touchdown

    4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +5.3 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 1:27 · IND · Touchdown

    17-D.Jones pass short left to 16-A.Dulin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +4.6 EP
  6. 6
    Q4 9:55 · IND · Fumble lost

    28-J.Taylor up the middle to DAL 20 for -2 yards (92-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (92-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by DAL-50-S.James at DAL 19. 50-S.James

    −5.5 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 3:34 · DAL · Missed field goal

    17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    −3.5 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 1:37 · DAL · Completion

    4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to IND 19 for 46 yards (1-A.Gardner).

    +2.8 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
27@23Week 9Changes the winner

If the Colts had fallen on their own fumble

Colts after the play31%what really happened
ColtsCowboysthe rest never happened

Q4 9:55 28-J.Taylor up the middle to DAL 20 for -2 yards (92-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (92-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by DAL-50-S.James at DAL 19. 50-S.James to DAL 30 for 11 yards (17-D.Jones). PENALTY on DAL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 30.

Week 9

The rest of the week