Week 9 · 2026Cowboys 27 · 23 Colts
160 plays, one strand. Cowboys won after 4 lead changes; Cowboys peaked at 87% to win, Colts at 76%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for IND, down for DAL, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom line4 lead changes; Cowboys peaked at 87% to win, Colts at 76%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Colts win, play by play. High = IND in control, low = DAL in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for IND on offense, down for DAL; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: DAL on the left, IND on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.7 expected points for Cowboys.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 13:46 · DAL · Completion+2.7 EP
4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 18-J.Mingo to IND 30 for 23 yards (33-K.Harris; 30-H.Wohler).
- 2Q1 8:59 · DAL · Fumble lost−4.3 EP
4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 16 for -5 yards (97-L.Latu). FUMBLES (97-L.Latu) [97-L.Latu], RECOVERED by IND-55-C.Curry at DAL 25. 55-C.Curry t
- 3Q2 14:13 · DAL · Touchdown+3.9 EP
4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 4Q2 0:28 · DAL · Touchdown+5.3 EP
4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 5Q3 1:27 · IND · Touchdown+4.6 EP
17-D.Jones pass short left to 16-A.Dulin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 6Q4 9:55 · IND · Fumble lost−5.5 EP
28-J.Taylor up the middle to DAL 20 for -2 yards (92-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (92-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by DAL-50-S.James at DAL 19. 50-S.James
- 7Q4 3:34 · DAL · Missed field goal−3.5 EP
17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
- 8Q4 1:37 · DAL · Completion+2.8 EP
4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to IND 19 for 46 yards (1-A.Gardner).
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the Colts had fallen on their own fumble
Q4 9:55 28-J.Taylor up the middle to DAL 20 for -2 yards (92-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (92-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by DAL-50-S.James at DAL 19. 50-S.James to DAL 30 for 11 yards (17-D.Jones). PENALTY on DAL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 30.