Green Bay PackersMike's Mid-Week Chat | Nov. 11, 2026
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158 plays, one strand. Ravens won after 2 lead changes; Ravens peaked at 100% to win, Falcons at 95%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for ATL, down for BAL, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom line2 lead changes; Ravens peaked at 100% to win, Falcons at 95%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Falcons win, play by play. High = ATL in control, low = BAL in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for ATL on offense, down for BAL; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Falcons ↑
Ravens ↓The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: BAL on the left, ATL on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 7.0 expected points against Ravens.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 8:14 · BAL · Fumble lost−7.0 EP
5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 34 for 9 yards (0-D.Deablo, 29-S.Brown). FUMBLES (29-S.Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-3-J.Bat
- 2Q2 4:34 · ATL · Completion+3.5 EP
9-M.Penix pass deep right to 4-J.Dotson to BAL 6 for 36 yards (29-C.Rivers).
- 3Q3 11:33 · ATL · Run+2.7 EP
7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to BAL 3 for 38 yards (24-M.Starks).
- 4Q3 8:27 · BAL · Run+3.7 EP
43-J.Hill up the middle pushed ob at ATL 18 for 47 yards (12-Av.Terrell).
- 5Q3 3:47 · ATL · Incomplete−2.8 EP
62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass short left to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 41 for -2 yards (9-Z.Young) [44-M.Humphrey]. The Replay
- 6Q4 11:35 · ATL · Completion+2.9 EP
9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London to BAL 41 for 19 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
- 7Q4 6:15 · ATL · Completion+2.7 EP
9-M.Penix pass short right to 17-Z.Branch pushed ob at ATL 41 for 23 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 0-R.Smith).
- 8OT 2:11 · ATL · Interception−2.7 EP
1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at BAL 40. 14-K.Hamilton to BAL 42 for 2 yards (5-D.Lo
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the Falcons had converted that fourth-and-2
Q3 3:47 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass short left to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 41 for -2 yards (9-Z.Young) [44-M.Humphrey]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Woerner [44-M.Humphrey]. ** Injury Update: BAL-14-K.Hamilton has returned to the game.
17@19
12@17
7@31
23@17
45@21
