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InjuryNathan Shepherd: Active → Cleared10 h ago
InjuryQuentin Lake: Active → Cleared11 h agoWeek 5 · 2026Raiders 17 · 45 Patriots
143 plays, one strand. Patriots won without the lead ever changing hands; Raiders peaked at 45% to win, Patriots at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for NE, down for LV, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Raiders peaked at 45% to win, Patriots at 100%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Patriots win, play by play. High = NE in control, low = LV in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for NE on offense, down for LV; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Patriots ↑
Raiders ↓The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: LV on the left, NE on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.6 expected points for Patriots.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 11:30 · NE · Touchdown+3.6 EP
10-D.Maye pass deep right to 3-D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 2Q1 4:35 · NE · Completion+2.9 EP
10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas pushed ob at LV 42 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson).
- 3Q1 2:34 · NE · Completion+3.5 EP
10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to LV 1 for 7 yards (31-T.Stukes).
- 4Q2 4:33 · NE · Fumble lost−4.6 EP
9-C.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler). FUMBLES (69-A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-26-D.Porter at NE 38. P
- 5Q2 1:56 · LV · Missed field goal−3.2 EP
14-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
- 6Q3 13:04 · NE · Touchdown+4.1 EP
10-D.Maye pass deep left to 18-K.Williams for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 7Q3 0:36 · NE · Completion+3.6 EP
10-D.Maye pass deep right to 18-K.Williams to LV 9 for 49 yards (26-D.Porter).
- 8Q4 2:42 · LV · Run−2.9 EP
15-F.Mendoza scrambles right end pushed ob at NE 11 for 3 yards (33-M.Brown).
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
17@45Week 5Changes the winnerIf the Raiders had stopped that fourth-and-2
Q1 4:35 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas pushed ob at LV 42 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson).
24@16
31@24
12@17
26@3
22@34
7@31
32@29
30@23
37@34