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WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 5 · 2026Browns 12 · 17 Jets

160 plays, one strand. Jets won after 2 lead changes; Browns peaked at 78% to win, Jets at 99%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for NYJ, down for CLE, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom line2 lead changes; Browns peaked at 78% to win, Jets at 99%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Jets win, play by play. High = NYJ in control, low = CLE in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for NYJ on offense, down for CLE; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Jets ↑Browns ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDFUMTDFUMFUMTDFUMNYJ ↑ HOMECLE ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: CLE on the left, NYJ on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
CLENYJ
65Plays64
198Yards278
6Explosive plays5
1Offensive TDs2
2Turnovers2
78%Peak win prob.99%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
CLEPunt-1yNYJTD90yCLEFG39yNYJPunt-11yCLEPunt3yNYJPunt25yCLEFG31yNYJPunt0yCLEPunt-4yNYJPunt31yCLEPunt31yNYJPunt25yCLEPunt2yNYJFUM50yCLEPunt8yNYJFG27yCLEPunt12yNYJPunt9yCLETD72yNYJFUM3yCLEFUM0yNYJTD23yCLEPunt2yNYJPunt6yCLEFUM3y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.4 expected points for Jets.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 9:25 · NYJ · Touchdown

    7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +3.4 EP
  2. 2
    Q2 11:45 · CLE · Completion

    4-D.Watson pass short right to 0-I.Bond pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 20 yards (6-D.Belton).

    +3.2 EP
  3. 3
    Q3 5:57 · NYJ · Fumble lost

    7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-K.Sadiq to CLE 5 for 6 yards (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by CLE-33-R.Hickman at CLE 7

    −3.7 EP
  4. 4
    Q4 6:21 · CLE · Touchdown

    4-D.Watson pass deep left to 12-D.Boston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +4.3 EP
  5. 5
    Q4 4:20 · NYJ · Fumble lost

    7-G.Smith sacked at CLE 48 for -9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). FUMBLES (49-C.Schwesinger) [49-C.Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLE-98-A.Huntington

    −5.8 EP
  6. 6
    Q4 4:01 · CLE · Fumble lost

    (Punt formation) 13-C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 42, touched at CLE 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-49-T.Wallace at CLE 23.

    −4.1 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 3:07 · NYJ · Touchdown

    0-B.Allen left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +3.9 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 0:57 · CLE · Fumble lost

    4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 19 for 0 yards (9-W.McDonald). FUMBLES (9-W.McDonald) [9-W.McDonald], touched at CLE 18, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDon

    −3.1 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
12@17Week 5Changes the winner

If the Browns had recovered that fumble

Browns after the play29%what really happened
JetsBrownsthe rest never happened

Q2 3:52 32-I.Davis right tackle to 50 for no gain (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), recovered by NYJ-7-G.Smith at 50.

Week 5

The rest of the week

Every week →
Buccaneers at Cowboys, Game DNA24@16Eagles at Jaguars, Game DNA17@19Bengals at Dolphins, Game DNA31@24Texans at Titans, Game DNA26@3Colts at Steelers, Game DNA22@34Raiders at Patriots, Game DNA17@45Vikings at Saints, Game DNA23@13Giants at Commanders, Game DNA27@27Bears at Packers, Game DNA7@31Broncos at Chargers, Game DNA23@17Lions at Cardinals, Game DNA45@2149ers at Seahawks, Game DNA32@29Ravens at Falcons, Game DNA30@23Bills at Rams, Game DNA37@34