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Raiders DeskThe Verdict

Raiders were outplayed from the first quarter in a deserved loss to the 49ers

The snaps said San Francisco by 15.9 points, and the Raiders' season luck sheet shows a 4-5 team with less cushion than it appears.

The VerdictDeservedDeserved 0% · Week 9
By Raiders Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 3:30 PM ET3 min read

The verdict

Played like that, the Raiders win 0% of the time. The snaps gave the 49ers a deserved win probability of more than 99%, and the final of 38-17 did not exaggerate. This was earned by San Francisco.

The deserved margin was 15.9 points for the 49ers. The Raiders did not lose on a bounce or a bad whistle. They lost because they were worse on the plays that count.

What the score hid

The score hid very little, but the per-snap numbers show where it went. EPA, or expected points added, measures how many points each play is worth against what the down and distance usually produce. The Raiders offense finished at -0.14 EPA per snap. The 49ers offense finished at 0.19.

Success rate told the same story. The Raiders hit on 40% of their snaps and San Francisco hit on 50%.

Luck did not rescue anyone. The Raiders ended the day at -2.7 luck points and the 49ers at 1.5, so the bounces leaned San Francisco's way, but not enough to explain a game this lopsided.

The swing play came early. In the first quarter with 13:26 left, B.Purdy hit G.Kittle short left for 4 yards to the LV 41, with T.Stukes in on the tackle. That one snap moved win probability 9 points toward San Francisco, the largest single move of the game.

The calls

Head coach Klint Kubiak made one graded fourth-down decision, and he got it wrong. In the first quarter with 8:29 left, the Raiders faced fourth-and-3 from 56 yards out from the end zone and punted. The model preferred going for it, called it a lean, and put the cost at 0.6 expected points. That is not a disaster, but the Raiders were at 27% win probability when they kicked it away, and a team in that spot has little to protect.

The flags did not decide this one. The heaviest, in the first quarter, were Intentional Grounding on San Francisco for 10 yards (3 points of win probability) and Defensive Offside on the Raiders for 5 yards (2 points). Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders cost 4 yards and 2 points, and a San Francisco False Start gave back 5 yards and 1 point. The ledger was close to even on the day.

The trend

The Raiders are 4-5, and the deserved-wins column says 3.6. The 0.4 wins of luck rank ninth of 32 teams, luckiest first. They are 2-2 in one-score games, they have no games robbed and one game won while lucky. The fumble recovery luck is worth 2.6 points and opponent kicking luck is worth 1.5, for a total of 11.1 luck points on the season.

The per-snap picture is worse than the record. Net EPA per snap is -0.106, 26th of 32. The penalty bill is 54 flags for 413 yards, with a net flag win probability of -37%.

The Chicken Index sits at 29%. Of 35 graded fourth downs, the model recommended going on 7, and the Raiders went on 5. The decisions have cost 3.3 expected points in total, with 1 clear miss. That is a small leak, and the larger problem is the offense and the flags.

What is due to change is the luck. A team playing at 3.6 deserved wins does not hold a 4-5 record by margin alone.

The Raiders host the Seattle Seahawks in Week 10 on Sunday, Nov 15, at 4:05 PM ET on CBS.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.