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Lions DeskBy the Numbers

Lions offense has slid from 0.326 EPA a play in Week 5 to 0.009 in Week 9

Detroit is 6-2 and sixth in offensive EPA, but the last three weeks have been flat, and the defense is coming off its best game of the year.

OffenseBy the Numbers+0.01Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Lions Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 5:10 PM ET2 min read

0.009: the offense has gone flat since Week 5

The Detroit Lions offense produced 0.009 expected points added per play in Week 9. EPA measures how much each play moves a team's scoring chances, and zero is break-even. In Week 5 the Lions were at 0.326, the best mark on the weekly log.

The last three weeks read -0.063, -0.047 and 0.009. The season number is still 0.102, sixth in the league, with the pass offense fifth and the rush offense 13th. The decline is recent, and it comes with a 6-2 record and a four-game winning streak.

0.02: Jared Goff has cooled against his season line

Goff is at 0.2 EPA per dropback-and-run play over the full season, on 298 plays and 2,005 yards. Over the last three weeks he is at 0.02 on 91 plays and 607 yards. His success rate held at 49 percent against 50 for the year, so the drop is in the size of the plays, not the number of them that keep drives alive.

The targets have narrowed. Amon-Ra St. Brown has a 36 percent target share over the last three weeks, up from 32 for the season, and he is at 0.46 EPA per target. Sam LaPorta led the season at 0.68 but has 12 targets in the recent stretch at 0.14.

36%: the early-down pass rate dropped, and the run game has not paid it back

The Lions threw on 72 percent of early downs in Week 4. In Week 8 that fell to 36 percent, a difference of 36 points, and it came back to 46 percent in Week 9.

The extra runs have not helped. Jahmyr Gibbs has 73 carries and 343 yards over the last three weeks at -0.11 EPA per play and a 45 percent success rate. His season line is -0.02 on 178 plays and 847 yards. Sione Vaki has 15 carries for 84 yards at zero EPA in the same stretch.

The line behind them has been reshuffled. Christian Mahogany played 100 percent of the snaps in Week 7 and none in Week 9. Juice Scruggs and Miles Frazier both went from no snaps to 100 percent. Cade Mays dropped from 100 percent in Week 7 to 31 percent in Week 8.

-0.211: the defense had its best game of the year

The defense allowed -0.211 EPA per play in Week 9, the best of the eight weeks logged. It allowed 0.435 in Week 2 and 0.289 in Week 4.

The season picture is weaker. Detroit allows 0.08 per play, 28th in the league, and a 44 percent success rate. The pass defense is 27th and the rush defense is 12th. Malcolm Rodriguez went from no snaps in Week 7 to 96 percent in Week 9, so the best defensive week came with a changed linebacker group.

What to watch Sunday

The Lions host the New England Patriots on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 9:30 a.m. ET on Fox, in Week 10. Detroit is 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road. The Bears lead the division at 7-2, with Detroit and Minnesota both at 6-2 and Detroit in the fifth seed. The checks are whether the early-down pass rate stays near 46 percent, whether Scruggs and Frazier keep their 100 percent snap shares, and whether the defense holds a negative EPA mark for a second week.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.