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Saints DeskBy the Numbers

Saints offense sits 22nd in EPA per play heading into Panthers game

New Orleans is 3-5 with a minus-31 point differential, and the numbers show a passing game that has changed shape and a defense that has changed faces.

By the NumbersOffense-0.04Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Saints Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 4:30 PM ET2 min read

22nd: the offense is at minus 0.037 EPA per play

The Saints rank 22nd in offensive EPA per play at minus 0.037. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each snap moves the scoreboard compared with an average play. A success rate of 42% backs up the ranking, and the pass offense (21st) and rush offense (24th) sit close together.

The weekly line has moved around. Week 2 was the best at 0.149 and Week 5 the worst at minus 0.351. Week 9 came in at minus 0.04 with a 44% success rate, which is near the season mark. New Orleans is 3-5 with 185 points scored and 216 allowed.

56%: the early-down pass rate is back up from a Week 6 low of 37%

In Week 6 the Saints threw on 37% of early downs and posted a 34% success rate. By Week 7 the early-down pass rate was 65%, and in Week 9 it was 56%. Week 1 sat at 71% and Week 4 at 70%.

The run game explains part of the shift. Kendre Miller has 57 rushing plays at minus 0.29 EPA per play and a 25% success rate. Alvin Kamara has 47 carries at minus 0.11. Over the last three weeks Audric Estime has 15 carries for 72 yards at 0.13 EPA per play, the only positive mark among the back-field rushers in the brief.

0.45 to minus 0.09: Chris Olave's efficiency has dropped while his volume holds

Chris Olave leads the team with 83 targets, 734 yards and a 28% target share, at 0.45 EPA per play for the season. Over the last three weeks his share is 31%, but he is at minus 0.09 on 22 plays.

Others have picked up the slack. Devaughn Vele is at 0.79 EPA per play over nine plays in that stretch, and Kamara is at 0.37 on 11 plays with a 64% success rate. Tyler Shough has gone from 0.02 EPA per play on the season to 0.11 over the last 86 plays, with a completion rate 1.2 points above expectation.

28th: the run defense is the weak point, and the lineup has been rearranged

The defense ranks 24th overall at 0.049 EPA allowed per play and 47% success allowed. It is 22nd against the pass and 28th against the run.

The Week 9 number was the best of the recent run at minus 0.114, against 0.421 in Week 4. The personnel is different from Week 6. Kool-Aid McKinstry went from 42% of snaps to 99%, while Danny Stutsman fell from 87% to 4% and Quincy Riley from 78% to 4%. On the line, Cesar Ruiz went from 40% to 96% at guard and Asim Richards from 97% to 0%.

New Orleans hosts the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Nov. 15 at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. Both teams are 3-5 and share second place in the NFC South. The Saints are 1-4 at home and 2-1 on the road.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.