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Colts DeskBy the Numbers

Colts rank 32nd against the run while the offense rushes at a top-five level

Indianapolis is 2-7 with the league's worst run defense, a reshuffled tackle spot and an early-down pass rate back at 61 percent.

By the NumbersGround game-0.21Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Colts Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 5:01 PM ET2 min read

32nd: the run defense is last in the league

The Colts rank 32nd in rush defense, the clearest weakness on a defense that sits 27th overall. Indianapolis allows 0.075 expected points added per play, and opponents are successful on 43 percent of their snaps. EPA is the points a play adds or costs compared with what the situation usually produces.

The pass defense is 23rd, so the run is the bigger gap. The defense gave up 0.14 EPA per play in Week 9 and 0.199 in Week 8. Both weeks were worse than the 0.075 season mark.

Miami arrives for the Week 10 game at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. The Colts have not stopped the run all year, and that is where the first-down snaps will test them.

5th: the rushing offense works, and the passing offense does not

Indianapolis ranks fifth in rush offense and 31st in pass offense. The overall offense is 29th at minus 0.125 EPA per play, with a 42 percent success rate.

Jonathan Taylor has 652 yards on 160 plays, but his EPA per play is minus 0.09 and his success rate is 41 percent. Seth McGowan has 208 yards on 43 plays at 0.07 EPA and 42 percent. Over the last three weeks the split is sharper. McGowan is at 0.15 EPA and 50 percent on 22 plays. Taylor is at minus 0.33 and 44 percent on 39 plays.

The run game ranks high on volume and yardage. Per play, only McGowan has been above zero lately.

100%: Jalen Farmer went from no snaps to every snap in three weeks

The offensive line has changed. Guard Jalen Farmer played 0 percent of the snaps in Week 6 and 100 percent in Week 9. Tackle Luke Tenuta went from 0 percent to 62 percent over the same stretch, while tackle Jalen Travis dropped from 100 percent to 41 percent.

The results are mixed. The offense posted minus 0.485 EPA per play in Week 8 and minus 0.208 in Week 9, with the success rate rising from 40 percent to 44 percent. That is an improvement from a very low base, not a fix.

Watch the tackle snaps against Miami. Tenuta and Travis split the work in Week 9, and Farmer has a full-time role at guard.

61%: the early-down pass rate is back up

Indianapolis threw on 61 percent of early downs in Week 9, up from 42 percent in Week 7. The offense had the same 44 percent success rate in both games. The extra passing did not make it more efficient.

Daniel Jones has minus 0.2 EPA per play for the season on 337 plays, with 1,565 yards and a completion rate 4.3 points below expectation. Over the last three weeks that slips to minus 0.35 EPA and 6.7 points below expectation on 98 plays.

The targets point the same way. Tyler Warren is at minus 1.16 EPA per play over the last three weeks on 17 targets, with a 24 percent success rate. Keenan Allen (0.22) and Josh Downs (0.2) are both above zero in that span.

The Colts are 2-7, riding a five-game losing streak and third in the AFC South behind Jacksonville at 6-2 and Houston at 3-5. Sunday's first-down play calls against Miami will show whether the offense leans on the fifth-ranked run game or the 31st-ranked pass game.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.