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Broncos DeskBy the Numbers

Broncos defense is giving back ground just as the offense finds its footing

Denver allowed positive EPA in each of the last two games while Bo Nix and the offense posted three straight positive weeks.

Bo NixBy the Numbers+0.04Offense EPA/play · Week 9QBBo Nix
By Broncos Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 4:20 PM ET2 min read

0.125: the defense has leaked points two weeks running

Denver allowed 0.125 EPA per play in Week 9 and 0.163 in Week 8. EPA, expected points added, scores each snap by the points it gains or costs against what that down and distance usually produce. Positive means the offense won the play.

The season mark is -0.008 per play, 14th in the league. In Week 5 the defense allowed -0.397, and in Week 7 it allowed -0.113. Two games above 0.12 is a break from that.

29th: the run defense is the weak spot

The Broncos rank 12th against the pass and 29th against the run. The overall defensive rank of 14th sits between those two numbers.

The secondary has also turned over. JL Skinner played 0 percent of the snaps in Week 6 and 91 percent in Week 9. Kris Abrams-Draine went from 76 percent in Week 6 to 0 percent in Week 8, and Brandon Jones fell from 100 percent to 35 percent over the same stretch. Las Vegas arrives with a 4-5 record, and Denver's run defense will face that offense at its weakest point.

0.26: Bo Nix is playing well above his season line

Over the last three weeks Nix has 0.26 EPA per play on 106 plays, with 667 yards and a completion rate 1.5 points above expectation. His season line is 0.02 on 310 plays, with a completion rate 1.1 points below expectation.

The offense follows that shape. It was positive in Week 7 (0.202), Week 8 (0.112) and Week 9 (0.043), though the figure has slid each week. The season mark is -0.014 per play, 16th in the league, with a 39 percent success rate. Success rate counts the share of plays that keep the offense on schedule.

Courtland Sutton has 0.13 EPA per target over the last three weeks on 19 targets, against -0.15 for the season. Jaylen Waddle sits at 0.35 over the same stretch on 15 targets.

15 percent: J.K. Dobbins has lost his snaps

Dobbins played 52 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 6 and 15 percent in Week 9. His season line explains it: -0.19 EPA per carry on 98 plays, a 29 percent success rate and 324 yards.

Jonah Coleman has 0.01 EPA per play and a 45 percent success rate on 47 plays. Over the last three weeks he has 152 yards on 37 rushing plays, and he adds 0.51 EPA per target on 11 targets. The rushing offense ranks 15th, and Coleman is the reason it is not lower.

What to watch

Denver is 7-2 and holds the second seed, with a one-game lead on Kansas City at 6-2 in the division. The Raiders come to Denver on Sunday, Nov. 22, at 4:25 PM ET on CBS, where the Broncos are 4-0. The defense has allowed positive EPA two games in a row, and the offense's weekly figure has dropped from 0.202 to 0.043 over the same span.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.