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Dolphins DeskBy the Numbers

Dolphins offense found its footing in Week 7 and lost it by Week 9

Miami's early-down pass rate rose from 38% to 54% as its success rate fell from 50% to 29%, while the rushing game stalled.

OffenseBy the Numbers-0.21Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Dolphins Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 4:21 PM ET2 min read

29%: the Week 9 success rate shows the offense stalling

The Dolphins finished Week 9 with a 29% success rate and an EPA per play of -0.211. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each snap moves the scoring odds. Miami has been below zero on it in seven of eight games.

Week 7 was the exception. The offense posted 0.283 EPA per play with a 50% success rate and threw on 38% of early downs. By Week 9 the early-down pass rate was 54%, 16 points higher, and the success rate was 21 points lower.

For the season, Miami sits at 39% success and -0.064 EPA per play, 24th in the league. The Fins have not found a stable way to stay on schedule.

0.38 EPA per target: Caleb Douglas is the answer when the first read is gone

Caleb Douglas has 17 targets over the last three weeks, a 23% target share. He has 183 yards, a 71% success rate and 0.38 EPA per target. His season line is nearly identical, at 70% success and 0.37 EPA.

Greg Dulcich is right behind at 0.50 EPA and 143 yards on 15 targets. Malik Washington has 0.70 EPA on 12 targets, with 88 yards.

Chris Bell is the outlier. He has 10 targets, 56 yards and -0.06 EPA, a 40% success rate.

Malik Willis is better for it. His EPA per play over the last three weeks is 0.10 on 95 plays, up from -0.04 for the season. His completion rate over expectation went from -4.8 to -0.3.

35%: the run game is not taking pressure off

Ollie Gordon II has 227 yards on 60 plays over the last three weeks. His success rate is 35% and his EPA per play is -0.15, worse than his season mark of -0.05 on 107 plays and 463 yards.

Jaylen Wright has 13 yards on 8 plays in that span. His success rate is 13% and his EPA per play is -0.48.

Miami ranks 22nd in rushing offense and 23rd in passing offense. When the pass game takes the lead, the run has not given it early-down help.

32nd: the defense leaves no margin for the offense

The Dolphins allow 0.116 EPA per play and a 49% success rate, both 32nd in the league. The pass defense also ranks 32nd. Rush defense is 22nd.

The record is 1-7 with a point differential of -74, and Miami is 0-4 at home. Dante Trader played every defensive snap in Week 9, while Julius Brents dropped from 90% of snaps in Week 7 to 64%.

Miami plays at the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. The Dolphins are 1-3 on the road and have lost two straight.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.