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Buccaneers DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Buccaneers' No. 2 defense faces Caleb Williams and the Bears at Soldier Field

Tampa Bay's second-ranked defense meets a Chicago offense at 0.063 EPA per play, with the Buccaneers' 30th-ranked pass offense as the open question.

DefenseScouting ReportatLine CHI -6
By Buccaneers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 3:21 PM ET2 min read

The matchup in numbers

The Buccaneers rank 30th in pass offense and 27th in offense overall, at minus-0.094 expected points added per play. EPA is the number of points a play adds or costs compared with what an average team would expect from that down, distance and field position. Baker Mayfield sits at minus-0.23 per play on 134 plays, with a 37 percent success rate and 617 yards.

Caleb Williams is the contrast. The Bears quarterback is at 0.28 per play on 186 plays, with a 52 percent success rate, 1,175 yards and a completion rate 7.6 points above expectation.

Tampa Bay's defense is the reason the record is not worse. It ranks second overall, allowing minus-0.158 EPA per play, with a second-ranked pass defense and a fifth-ranked run defense. Chicago's offense ranks ninth at 0.063 per play, with a 47 percent success rate.

Where they can win it

The Buccaneers have won two straight, 43-13 at Carolina and 16-0 over Atlanta, and the shutout fits the defensive profile. Opponents succeed on 39 percent of plays against Tampa Bay. The Bears are 10th in pass offense and 12th in both pass and run defense, so the Buccaneers do not face a dominant unit on either side of the ball.

The most direct path runs through the ground. Tampa Bay's rush offense ranks eighth. Bucky Irving has 728 yards on 147 plays, though at 0 EPA per play and a 42 percent success rate. Kenny Gainwell has 289 yards on 58 plays with a 47 percent success rate.

In the passing game, Chris Godwin Jr. (0.19 per play, 49 percent success) and Cade Otton (0.16, 47 percent) are the two Buccaneers targets with clearly positive numbers. The Buccaneers are 2-1 on the road, against 1-4 at home.

The worry

Chicago's receivers are efficient across the board. Rome Odunze is at 0.52 per play on 44 targets, Kalif Raymond at 0.42, and Luther Burden III at 0.31 with a 59 percent success rate and 547 yards. Against that group, a second-ranked pass defense will be tested more than it has been in most weeks.

The Bears are also the better team by the standings and the scoreboard: 6-2 with a point differential of plus-54, against Tampa Bay's 3-5 and plus-27. Chicago has won three in a row, including 34-17 at Seattle. Its only loss in the last four games was 7-31 at Green Bay in Week 5.

On the other side, Emeka Egbuka leads Tampa Bay with a 24 percent target share but sits at minus-0.26 per play on 49 plays. If the Buccaneers' top target is limited, the passing offense has to find production elsewhere.

Availability

Tampa Bay: linebacker Yaya Diaby is out with a knee MCL injury, and he is a starter. Egbuka is questionable with a foot injury. Jalen McMillan (knee, PCL) and Josh Hayes (knee) are on injured reserve.

Chicago: cornerback Tyrique Stevenson Sr. is questionable with a thumb injury and is a starter. Running back Kyle Monangai (toe) and cornerback Malik Muhammad II (toe) are also questionable. Zavier Scott, Kentavius Street and Braxton Jones are on injured reserve.

Kickoff is Sunday, Nov. 8, at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. For context, Chicago is a 6-point favorite at Soldier Field with a total of 47.5.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.