Buccaneers at Falcons: Week 16 preview, odds and injuries

Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium12 AM ET

at12 AMET · TBD

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 10:36 PM ET

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) visit the Atlanta Falcons (3-6) on Sun, Dec 27, time TBD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA (Week 16, 2026 season).

When and where is Buccaneers vs Falcons?

Sun, Dec 27, time TBD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.

Who is injured for Buccaneers vs Falcons?

Buccaneers: Yaya Diaby (LB, out, knee - mcl) and Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, questionable, ankle). Falcons: Anterio Thompson (DT, out, undisclosed) and Zachariah Branch (WR, doubtful, hamstring).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Buccaneers at Falcons: Week 16 preview”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-12-27-tb-at-atl (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

Regular season through week 15 · rank out of 32

Where this game will be decided

1Buccaneers pass defense vs Falcons dropback offense
The Buccaneers' pass defense ranks 2nd in EPA per dropback (-0.17 allowed, 335 dropbacks faced) and faces a Falcons dropback offense ranked 28th (-0.13, 286 dropbacks).
28thATL offense26 spots apart2ndTB defense
2Buccaneers third-down defense vs Falcons third-down offense
The Buccaneers' third-down defense ranks 6th in third-down conversion rate (34.5% allowed, 113 third downs faced) and faces a Falcons third-down offense ranked 28th (35.2%, 105 third downs).
28thATL offense22 spots apart6thTB defense
3Buccaneers takeaway defense vs Falcons ball security
The Buccaneers' takeaway defense ranks 1st in turnovers per game (2.1 takeaways a game, 9 games) and faces a Falcons ball security ranked 28th (1.7 giveaways a game, 9 games).
28thATL offense27 spots apart1stTB defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Buccaneers have the ballEdge ATL · +15 ranks

TB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackATL pass defense

30th-0.20293 dropbacks

ATL +15

+0.04 allowed345 dropbacks faced15th

TB run gameEPA per rushATL run defense

10th-0.01263 rushes

TB +11

-0.06 allowed228 rushes faced21st

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Falcons have the ballEdge TB · +26 ranks

ATL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackTB pass defense

28th-0.13286 dropbacks

TB +26

-0.17 allowed335 dropbacks faced2nd

ATL run gameEPA per rushTB run defense

8th-0.00239 rushes

-0.16 allowed180 rushes faced5th

Third downEdge TB · +22 ranks

TB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateATL third-down defense

23rd37.1%124 third downs

43.3% allowed120 third downs faced23rd

ATL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateTB third-down defense

28th35.2%105 third downs

TB +22

34.5% allowed113 third downs faced6th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

TB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateATL red-zone defense

25th50%30 trips

67% allowed33 trips faced24th

ATL red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateTB red-zone defense

14th62%26 trips

48% allowed23 trips faced7th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge TB · +11 ranks

TB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateATL defense against big plays

12th9.7%556 plays

9.6% allowed573 plays faced19th

ATL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateTB defense against big plays

15th9.5%525 plays

TB +11

7.2% allowed515 plays faced4th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge ATL · +14 ranks

TB pass protectionsack rateATL pass rush

29th9.2% sacked293 dropbacks

ATL +11

5.8% of dropbacks345 dropbacks faced18th

ATL pass protectionsack rateTB pass rush

12th5.6% sacked286 dropbacks

ATL +14

5.1% of dropbacks335 dropbacks faced26th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge TB · +27 ranks

TB ball securityturnovers per gameATL takeaway defense

24th1.6 giveaways a game9 games

1.1 takeaways a game9 games19th

ATL ball securityturnovers per gameTB takeaway defense

28th1.7 giveaways a game9 games

TB +27

2.1 takeaways a game9 games1st

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

AbsencesTB 0 · ATL 0 regulars out or doubtful

Buccaneers2 listed

0 of them are regulars ruled out or doubtful (60%+ of their unit's snaps across 3+ weeks on the field).

QAntoine Winfield Jr.S89% defense · 6 wk
OUTYaya DiabyLB53% defense · 8 wk

Falcons2 listed

0 of them are regulars ruled out or doubtful (60%+ of their unit's snaps across 3+ weeks on the field).

DZachariah BranchWR24% offense · 8 wk
OUTAnterio ThompsonDTno snaps

Snap share is the average of the weeks each player was on the field this season. Full injury report ↓

Rest & travelSame rest · TB travels 415 mi

AwayBuccaneers

7days since last game

415miles to get here

0time zones

Last: Sun wk 15 vs NO · 6,435 mi flown this season

Body clock 12:00 a.m.

Rest edgeEvensame restTravel gap 415 mi

HomeFalcons

7days since last game

0miles · home

0time zones

Last: Sun wk 15 at WSH · Landover · 12,887 mi flown this season

Normal week

League splits for these situations ↓

Sample: TB 9 games, 556 offensive and 515 defensive plays · ATL 9 games, 525 offensive and 573 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Season to date · rank out of 32