Buccaneers lose 27-24 in Chicago despite forcing five Bears turnovers

The deciding stretch

With 47 seconds left in the fourth quarter, Bears quarterback C.Williams threw deep left to C.Loveland for 38 yards, down to the Tampa Bay 16. The play cost the Buccaneers 26 points of win probability, the largest swing of the afternoon. The Bears' only points in the fourth quarter were three, and the game had been tied at 24 until they arrived. Chicago won 27-24.

The Bucs lost a game they had no business losing on the turnover line. They took the ball away five times and gave it away twice, and the Bears still finished with 349 total yards to Tampa Bay's 352. The explanation is in the down-and-distance numbers and one pass in the third quarter.

The swing

At 4:38 of the third quarter, A.Anzalone intercepted C.Williams at the Chicago 43. That play moved Tampa Bay's win probability up 14 points. Less than a minute later, at 3:39, Baker Mayfield threw short right toward C.Otton and J.Johnson stepped in front of it, returning the interception 67 yards for a touchdown. That one took away 24 points of win probability, 10 more than the Bucs had just gained.

The Bucs answered late. With 3:48 left in the fourth, L.Burden fumbled after a 4-yard catch and I.Melifonwu recovered at the Chicago 21, returning it to the 17. The play was worth 13 points of win probability to Tampa Bay, and the Bucs scored 11 points in the quarter to pull level at 24. Then Williams and Loveland needed one deep throw to take it back.

Third down was the quiet killer. Tampa Bay converted 2 of 12. Chicago converted 7 of 13, and the Bears' longest drive was a four-play, 81-yard touchdown that never needed a third down to matter. The Bucs' own longest drive was six plays for 74 yards and a score, so the offense could move when it stayed ahead of the sticks. It stayed there too rarely: four of their 14 drives were three-and-outs.

Who moved the needle

Bucky Irving carried 20 times for 97 yards and two touchdowns, 4.9 yards per carry, with a long of 25. He added four catches for 28 yards. The Bucs ran for 126 yards at 4.5 per attempt against a Bears run game held to 72 yards at 3.3.

Mayfield finished 18 of 32 for 243 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions and a 54.6 passer rating. He was sacked four times for 17 yards. His 7.6 yards per attempt is a fair number, but the team's 6.3 yards per pass once the sacks are counted, and the pick-six, are what the afternoon will be remembered for.

The explosive plays came from the receivers who could separate. Tez Johnson caught two passes for 76 yards, including a 58-yarder, on five targets. Kenny Gainwell caught three for 60 with a 44-yard long. Emeka Egbuka had three catches for 38 yards on five targets.

On defense, Josiah Trotter led with eight tackles. Tykee Smith had seven, a tackle for loss and a pass defensed. Anthony Nelson and Calijah Kancey each took half a sack and each hit the quarterback once. The red-zone work held up: Chicago converted one of four trips into a touchdown, while Tampa Bay went 2 of 5. The defense bent through 277 net passing yards and still got the ball back five times.

Where it leaves them

Tampa Bay is 3-6, 1-4 at home and 2-2 on the road, and sits 12th in the conference. In the division the Buccaneers are third at 3-6, behind the Panthers and Saints at 3-5, and level with the Falcons. Their point differential is still plus-24, 202 scored against 178 allowed, which says the record is thinner than the scoring margin.

The next game is week 11 at the Detroit Lions, Sunday, Nov. 22, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. The data to watch is third down, where the Bucs converted 2 of 12 against Chicago, and whether the offense can avoid the sack-and-turnover swings that decided this game.