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Rams DeskRams earned 20-13 win at Washington despite 4.3 luck points lost and four costly flags4 min agoInjuryKyler Murray: Out → Doubtful10 min agoInjuryGraham Barton: Active → Cleared10 min agoInjuryMalik Willis: Questionable → Doubtful10 min agoJets DeskJets lose 35-12 to Chiefs and the snaps agree with the scoreboard13 min agoChargers DeskTexans outplayed the Chargers by three touchdowns' worth of snaps14 min agoJacksonville JaguarsRoster Moves: Jaguars Waive CB Alijah HuzzieBuffalo BillsBills land impact safety Amani Hooker in trade with TitansMiami DolphinsDolphins make roster movesESPNWhat the Kirk Cousins trade means for the Vikings and the RaidersPro Football RumorsDolphins Place QB Malik Willis On IR; Kyle McCord To Start In Week 10ESPNSources: Chiefs snag needed help at WR, trade for Colts' Josh DownsInjuryGarett Bolles: Active → Cleared27 min agoInjuryJosh Downs: Active → Cleared27 min agoESPNSources: Broncos land LB Daiyan Henley in trade with Chargers before deadlineESPNKimes, Tannenbaum surprised by Chargers trading Daiyan HenleyDallas CowboysTape Talk: Film review from Cowboys' 27-23 win over the ColtsPro Football RumorsChiefs To Acquire Josh Downs From ColtsInjuryDaiyan Henley: Active → Cleared42 min agoInjuryKyler Murray: Questionable → Out42 min agoGreen Bay PackersPackers rookie CB Brandon Cisse has 'quite a bit of resilience about his game'Raiders DeskRaiders were outplayed from the first quarter in a deserved loss to the 49ers44 min ago
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Rams DeskThe Verdict

Rams earned 20-13 win at Washington despite 4.3 luck points lost and four costly flags

The snaps gave Los Angeles a 96% chance against the Commanders, and the margin should have been 9.3 points instead of seven.

The VerdictRamsEarnedDeserved 96% · Week 9
By Rams Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 4:10 PM ET2 min read

The verdict

The snaps gave the Rams a 96% chance. Los Angeles beat the Washington Commanders 20-13 on the road, and the deserved margin was 9.3 points, a little wider than the seven on the scoreboard. This one was earned.

The gap came from efficiency. The Rams averaged 0.02 EPA per snap, while Washington averaged -0.2. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each play raises or lowers the scoring outlook of a drive. The offense was only slightly above zero. The defense holding the Commanders 0.22 below it did most of the work.

What the score hid

Success rate was closer than the EPA gap suggests: 43% for the Rams, 39% for Washington. Neither offense was consistent, and the Rams were not dominant.

The luck ledger ran against them. The Rams finished at -4.3 luck points for the game and the Commanders at +3.4, a 7.7-point swing toward the team that lost. Los Angeles won anyway.

The biggest swing play came in the fourth quarter at 12:57. M.Stafford threw short left from the shotgun to P.Nacua for a 7-yard touchdown. It added 17 points of win probability.

The calls

All four of the heaviest flags went against Los Angeles. An offensive pass interference call in the third quarter at 2:06 cost 10 yards and 7 points of win probability. A defensive offside with 0:31 left in the fourth, a late flag, cost 6. An unnecessary roughness in the second quarter at 12:25 cost 15 yards and 4, and a first-quarter offside at 10:50 also cost 4.

On fourth down, Sean McVay was right when the model was loudest. The Rams went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Washington 29 and converted. They went again on fourth-and-2 in the second quarter at 4:39, a clear call for the model, and converted that too. The first-quarter field goal on fourth-and-7 from the 14 matched the model.

The two punts were the misses. On fourth-and-2 from 72 yards out in the second quarter, the model said go, and the punt cost 0.6 expected points. On fourth-and-4 from 59 yards out in the third, a tossup, the punt cost 0.2. Neither changed the game. Both fit a pattern McVay has shown all year.

The trend

The Rams are 5-4, but their snaps are worth 6.6 deserved wins. That puts luck at -1.6 wins, 30th of 32 teams, luckiest first. They are 2-3 in one-score games and have been robbed in one game. Fumble recovery luck sits at -3, and total luck is -11.8 points.

The flags are part of it. Los Angeles has 71 penalties for 599 yards, a net cost of 63 points of win probability.

The underlying play is strong. The Rams are third of 32 in net EPA per snap at 0.191. A team that good should not stay 1.6 wins behind its snaps indefinitely.

The Chicken Index, the share of recommended fourth-down attempts a team declined, is 54%, 14th most timid of 32. Of 44 graded fourth downs, the model recommended going on 13, and McVay went on 6. The conservative calls have cost 8.3 expected points this year, including 3 clear misses.

The Rams visit the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10, Sunday, Nov. 15, at 4:05 PM ET on CBS.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.