Jameis Winston's minus-0.05 EPA per play meets a Commanders defense ranked 20th

The matchup in numbers

Jameis Winston has been a drag on the New York Giants' offense by the measure we trust most. Over 189 plays he is at minus-0.05 EPA per play, with a completion percentage over expected of minus-6.1. EPA, expected points added, is the number of points a play adds or costs compared with what that down and distance usually produce.

Jayden Daniels sits on the other side at 0.07 EPA per play and plus-4.9 completion percentage over expected on 219 plays. That is a gap of 0.12 in EPA and 11.0 points in accuracy over expected between the two starters.

The team numbers are close to a wash. The Giants' offense is at 0.003 EPA per play, 15th in the league, with a 41 percent success rate. Washington's offense is at minus-0.029, 20th, also at 41 percent. The Giants' defense allows minus-0.03 per play, 11th, against 0.024 and 20th for Washington's.

Where they can win it

The Giants have receivers who produce when the ball reaches them. Malik Nabers has a 30 percent target share and 0.22 EPA per play on 79 plays. Isaiah Likely is at 0.26 on 70 plays with a 53 percent success rate, the best mark among the Giants' main targets. Malachi Fields adds 0.24 on 35 plays.

That is where the quarterback and protection problem has to be solved. Winston's numbers sit below those of the players he throws to, so the route to a better offense runs through his decisions and accuracy, not through the pass catchers.

Washington's defense gives the Giants an opening. It allows a 46 percent success rate, compared with 41 percent for New York's defense, and ranks 23rd against the run and 19th against the pass. Cam Skattebo has 418 yards on 98 plays, but his minus-0.11 EPA per play and 37 percent success rate say the ground game has not yet turned that volume into points.

The worry

The worry is the quarterback room more than the opponent. Winston's passing is the most visible reason the Giants rank 16th in pass offense and 19th in rushing offense despite a 5-2-1 record. Devin Singletary is at minus-0.29 EPA per play with a 23 percent success rate on 39 carries, so the backfield offers little relief.

The last meeting is a reminder of how thin the margin is. The Giants and Commanders tied 27-27 in Week 5, and the Giants have scored 182 points against 172 allowed, a difference of 10 across eight games. Washington is 0-3 on the road and 2-5-1 overall, but its offense matched New York's success rate, and Terry McLaurin averages 0.5 EPA per play on 28 targets, the highest mark on either roster's main target list.

The Giants won 19-11 at the Eagles last time out and have won two straight. They are 3-1 at home, and Thursday's game at MetLife Stadium is on Prime Video.

Availability

The Giants list four players as questionable. Linebacker Abdul Carter (knee) and wide receiver Charlie Jones (thumb) are starters. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney (chest) and linebacker Malik Harrison (groin) are not. Mooney has 26 plays at 0.2 EPA per play.

Washington has more to sort out up front. Guard Lucas Patrick, a starter, is doubtful with a concussion. Defensive tackle Shy Tuttle (shoulder) and tight end Chig Okonkwo (hip) are questionable starters. Defensive tackles Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw are on injured reserve, along with running back Jeremy McNichols and wide receiver Dyami Brown. Tight end Colson Yankoff and wide receiver Treylon Burks are also questionable.

Thursday's kickoff is at 8:15 PM ET, and the Giants are favored by 2.5 points with a total of 41.5, which frames how close the market sees a game between two teams level in offensive success rate.