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49ers DeskThe TapeGame center →

49ers turn five Raiders turnovers and 190 rushing yards into a 38-17 win

San Francisco scored 14 points in the first quarter, took the ball away five times and finished 8-for-13 on third down against Las Vegas.

3817The TapeW 38–17vsRAIDERS
By 49ers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 8, 9:21 PM ET3 min read

The deciding stretch

The third quarter decided it. San Francisco outscored Las Vegas 14-7 in that quarter, and the biggest piece was a single play at 14:43. Raiders quarterback K.Cousins was sacked for a loss of 6 yards, fumbled and recovered, then threw for T.Tucker and was intercepted by Jaden Dugger at the LV 35. Dugger returned it 35 yards for a touchdown.

That gave the 49ers a 35-17 lead after three quarters, built on 14 points in the first quarter and 7 in the second. The Raiders scored 10 in the second, then 7 in the third and none in the first or fourth. They never led.

The Raiders finished with five turnovers to San Francisco's one in the team stats. The 49ers' drive chart shows 9 drives, 5 scoring drives and no three-and-outs.

The swing

The largest win-probability swing came late. At 3:57 of the fourth quarter, K.Cousins threw deep middle for T.Tucker and M.Mustapha intercepted at the SF 27. Our model moved 33 percent on that play.

The 49ers had their own giveaway. In the third quarter, at 8:01, B.Purdy threw deep right for G.Kittle and T.Stukes intercepted at the LV 43, returning it 26 yards to the SF 31. That cost San Francisco 5 percent of win probability, and the Raiders' 7 points in that quarter are the only damage on the scoreboard.

Las Vegas had one real drive: 9 plays and 69 yards for a touchdown. San Francisco's longest went 13 plays and 89 yards for a score. Time of possession was 37:40 to 21:42.

Who moved the needle

Brock Purdy was the engine. He completed 17 of 25 for 232 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, a 107.4 rating, at 9.3 yards per attempt. His 13 total EPA on 30 passing plays led the team. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each play changes the scoring outlook of a drive.

The short-to-long conversion showed up in the receiving numbers. Jordan Watkins caught all 4 of his targets for 86 yards and a touchdown, a 21.5 average, with a long of 37. His 7.3 EPA on 4 plays ranked second on the team. George Kittle also had a 37-yard catch among his 4 receptions for 58 yards, and Christian McCaffrey added 3.6 EPA as a receiver on 3 plays.

The ground game was steady more than explosive. The 49ers ran for 190 yards at 4.4 per carry. Kaelon Black had 11 carries for 70 yards, a 6.4 average and a long of 18. McCaffrey carried 18 times for 68 yards and a touchdown. Purdy ran 7 times for 40 yards and a score, though his rushing plays cost 2.5 EPA over 3 plays tracked. As a team, San Francisco's rushing EPA was -0.004 per carry, essentially flat, while its EPA per dropback was 0.432.

On defense, Dre Greenlaw had 8 tackles with 3 for loss, and Fred Warner added 5 tackles. Las Vegas managed 24 rushing yards on 1.6 per carry and a 40 percent success rate, against 50 percent for San Francisco.

Where it leaves them

The 49ers are 7-1 with 235 points scored and 156 allowed, a +79 differential. They hold the top seed in the conference and lead the division over the 5-4 Seahawks and Rams. The Cardinals are 3-6.

San Francisco is 5-0 at Levi's Stadium, and its road record is 2-1. Next comes a road game at the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10 on Sunday, Nov 15, at 4:25 PM ET on Fox. The pregame line has San Francisco at -3.5 with a total of 53.5.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.