Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
InjuryA.J. Brown: Questionable → Out26 min agoESPNBroncos say trade with Chargers for LB Henley 'will not be finalized'Pro Football RumorsBroncos-Bolts’ Daiyan Henley Trade NixedDenver BroncosStatement from the BroncosESPNRams optimistic about Davante Adams' return after quiet trade deadlineInjuryDaniel Jones: Active → Cleared6 h agoInjuryChristian Darrisaw: Active → Cleared6 h agoESPN49ers face questions at corner heading into Week 10InjuryChamarri Conner: Active → Cleared6 h agoInjuryTrey McBride: Active → Cleared6 h agoInjuryChris Olave: Active → Cleared6 h agoInjuryJustin Reid: Active → Cleared6 h agoInjuryKyren Williams: Active → Cleared6 h agoCincinnati BengalsQuick Hits | Joe Burrow Eyes Drew Brees' Record Of 74.4%: 'That Would Be A Fun One To Break'Pro Football RumorsNFL Practice Squad Updates: 11/11/26ESPNTitans explain decision to keep Tony PollardESPNVeteran WR Keenan Allen feeling energized by trade to 49ersPro Football RumorsMinor NFL Transactions: 11/11/26Las Vegas RaidersGutierrez: Raiders long-term plan comes to fruition with insertion of Fernando Mendoza at quarterbackLos Angeles RamsFrom the Podium: Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford preview Rams' second meeting with CardinalsESPNSaints get Travis Etienne back at practiceArizona CardinalsFor Starters, Carson Beck Ready To Play First Game Against Rams
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
49ers DeskScouting ReportGame center →

49ers' No. 1 offense meets a Raiders defense ranked 28th in EPA allowed

San Francisco leads the league in offensive EPA per play at 0.177, and Las Vegas allows 0.078 per play, 28th in the league.

vsScouting ReportvsLine SF -10
By 49ers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 1:50 PM ET3 min read

San Francisco's offense averages 0.177 expected points added per play, first in the league. EPA measures how much each snap moves the scoring outlook compared with an average play. The Raiders defense allows 0.078 per play, which ranks 28th, and that gap is the matchup that frames Sunday's game at Levi's Stadium (4:25 PM ET, Fox).

The matchup in numbers

The 49ers are 6-1 and hold the No. 1 seed in the conference, with a 4-0 record at home. They have outscored opponents 197-139. The offense ranks second in passing and third in rushing, with a 53 percent success rate.

The Raiders are 4-4 and third in the AFC West behind the Broncos at 6-2 and the Chiefs at 5-2. Their offense posts a 42 percent success rate, 11 points below San Francisco's. Las Vegas is 1-3 at home and 3-1 on the road, and it beat the Jets 38-33 in Week 8.

Brock Purdy has driven the 49ers' numbers: 232 plays, 1,710 yards, 0.29 EPA per play and a 54 percent success rate. His completion rate is 4.3 points above what the throws were expected to produce.

Where they can win it

The Raiders rank 27th against the pass and 24th against the run. That leaves San Francisco with options on every down.

George Kittle has 425 yards on 46 plays, a 22 percent target share, and 0.35 EPA per play. Christian McCaffrey has 389 rushing yards on 84 plays with a 54 percent success rate, and he adds 251 yards on 42 targets with a 55 percent success rate. Those are the steady plays that keep the offense ahead of the sticks.

On defense, the 49ers rank first against the run. Las Vegas ranks 29th in rushing offense, and Ashton Jeanty has 337 yards on 108 plays with a 31 percent success rate and minus-0.31 EPA per play. Mike Washington Jr. has 278 yards on 65 plays at the same 31 percent. If the ground game stalls, Kirk Cousins has to carry the offense. He has 2,062 yards on 301 plays, with 0.16 EPA per play and a 48 percent success rate.

The worry

The 49ers carry a one-game losing streak, a 29-20 loss at the Falcons in Week 7. Their pass defense ranks 15th, well below the run defense, and that is where the Raiders are strongest. Las Vegas ranks seventh in passing offense.

Brock Bowers has 547 yards on 62 plays, with 0.53 EPA per play and a 60 percent success rate. Tre Tucker adds 474 yards at 0.43 EPA per play, and Michael Mayer has a 65 percent success rate on 43 plays. San Francisco's defense allows a 44 percent success rate and ranks eighth in EPA allowed per play, so it can hold up, but the Raiders have three receivers who win on most of their targets.

Availability

The receiver room is thin. Mike Evans is out with an Achilles injury. He has 500 yards on 40 targets, 1.02 EPA per play and a 70 percent success rate, the best marks on the roster. Deebo Samuel Sr. is out with a hamstring injury after 126 yards on 20 targets. Brandon Aiyuk (personal) and Christian Kirk (knee) are also out, and Demarcus Robinson is on injured reserve.

On defense, cornerback Upton Stout is questionable with a shoulder injury, and safety Siran Neal is questionable with a knee injury. Nate Hobbs is on injured reserve. For Las Vegas, cornerback Darien Porter is questionable with a groin injury, and defensive tackle Thomas Booker IV is out.

San Francisco is a 10-point favorite with a total of 51.5, a line that reflects the gap in the two teams' efficiency numbers.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.