Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000Line MovementOpening vs closing, every game since 2023
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
Pro Football RumorsCardinals Work Out QBs Cooper Rush, Trevor SiemianESPNWhy Giants' trade attempts 'just didn't happen'ESPNChiefs add WR Josh Downs at NFL trade deadlineESPNHow the Amani Hooker trade helps the Titans rebuildInjuryEric Wilson: Active → Cleared3 h agoPro Football RumorsJets Work Out QBs Bailey Zappe, Austin ReedInjuryZach Allen: Active → Cleared4 h agoPro Football RumorsCowboys Add RB Kendre Miller To Practice SquadESPNHow Josh Downs fits with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offenseInjuryNathan Shepherd: Active → Cleared4 h agoESPNPatrick and Brittany Mahomes announce baby No. 4 on NFL trade deadline dayInjuryJoshua Metellus: Active → Cleared4 h agoCincinnati BengalsInside The Drive | How Ja'Marr Chase Took Over MadridInjuryJordyn Brooks: Active → Cleared5 h agoPro Football RumorsNFL Practice Squad Updates: 11/10/26ESPNRaiders name Fernando Mendoza starting QB after trading Kirk CousinsInjuryQuentin Lake: Active → Cleared5 h agoInjuryDre'Mont Jones: Active → Cleared5 h agoInjuryChristian Barmore: Active → Cleared5 h agoSan Francisco 49ersPower Rankings: Where the 49ers Stand Entering Week 10ESPNGet ready for Chargers vs. Ravens on Monday Night FootballPro Football RumorsMinor NFL Transactions: 11/10/26
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
Jets DeskThe Verdict

Jets lose 35-12 to Chiefs and the snaps agree with the scoreboard

Four field goals, a 39% success rate and a second-quarter fumble left the Jets with almost no deserved chance against Kansas City.

TurnoversThe VerdictDeservedDeserved 0% · Week 9
By Jets Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 4:01 PM ET3 min read

The verdict

Played like that, the Jets win less than 1% of the time. The snaps gave the Chiefs better than a 99% chance, and the engine put the deserved margin at Chiefs by 22.4 points. The 35-12 final was earned, and the gap in the score is close to the gap in the play.

The Jets' deserved win probability rounds to 0%. This was not a game that broke the wrong way for them.

What the score hid

It hid very little. The Jets averaged -0.27 EPA per snap, which measures the points a play adds or removes against what the situation was worth before the snap. Kansas City averaged 0.18. On success rate the Jets were at 39% and the Chiefs at 56%.

That is the problem for a team built around its defense. A defense can carry an offense that resets, but only if it holds the other side below a 50% success rate, and this one did not. The Chiefs stayed ahead of the sticks more than half the time.

Luck did not decide it either. The game was worth 0.3 luck points to the Jets and 1.5 to the Chiefs, a gap of 1.2 points that explains a small slice of a 23-point loss.

The swing play was B.Allen's fumble. With 6:29 left in the second quarter, he ran up the middle to the NYJ 26 for 5 yards, and N.Bolton knocked the ball loose. A.Gilman recovered it and returned it to the NYJ 24. The turnover moved win probability by 22 points, the largest swing of the game.

The calls

Head coach Aaron Glenn's fourth-down decisions matched the model on all six graded snaps. He kicked field goals on fourth-and-5 from the 5, fourth-and-6 from the 30, fourth-and-14 and fourth-and-7. He punted on fourth-and-10 and fourth-and-23. The model agreed every time, and none cost the Jets expected points.

The four field goals add up to the Jets' 12 points. The decisions were not the issue. The drives that ended in those attempts were.

The flags hurt more. All four of the heaviest were on the Jets, and all four benefited Kansas City. Illegal contact cost 5 yards and 5 points of win probability. A face mask cost 15 yards and 4 points. A false start and a kickoff out of bounds cost 2 points each. Three of the four came in the second quarter, when the game got away.

The trend

The Jets are 2-7, but their snaps say 4.5 deserved wins. That is a luck gap of -2.5 wins, the worst mark among the 32 teams. They are 1-5 in one-score games and have been robbed in 2 games. They have not won a game while lucky.

This week does not add to that case. A 22-point deserved loss is not a robbery. The season total is -0.9 luck points, including -0.3 on fumble recoveries and -0.3 on opponent kicking. Penalties are the larger drag: 73 flags for 572 yards, a net of -92 points of win probability.

Glenn's Chicken Index is 55%, 13th most timid of 32 teams. He has gone for it on 5 of the 11 fourth downs where the model recommended going. Across 48 graded fourth downs, the Jets have lost 5.5 expected points, with 3 clear misses. None of those came Sunday. The Jets' net EPA per snap for the season is -0.024, 21st in the league.

The next test is the Buffalo Bills at East Rutherford on Sunday, Nov. 15 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.