Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000Line MovementOpening vs closing, every game since 2023
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
ESPNHow the Amani Hooker trade helps the Titans rebuildInjuryEric Wilson: Active → Cleared56 min agoPro Football RumorsJets Work Out QBs Bailey Zappe, Austin ReedInjuryZach Allen: Active → Cleared2 h agoPro Football RumorsCowboys Add RB Kendre Miller To Practice SquadESPNHow Josh Downs fits with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offenseInjuryNathan Shepherd: Active → Cleared3 h agoESPNPatrick and Brittany Mahomes announce baby No. 4 on NFL trade deadline dayInjuryJoshua Metellus: Active → Cleared3 h agoCincinnati BengalsInside The Drive | How Ja'Marr Chase Took Over MadridInjuryJordyn Brooks: Active → Cleared3 h agoPro Football RumorsNFL Practice Squad Updates: 11/10/26ESPNRaiders name Fernando Mendoza starting QB after trading Kirk CousinsInjuryQuentin Lake: Active → Cleared4 h agoInjuryDre'Mont Jones: Active → Cleared4 h agoInjuryChristian Barmore: Active → Cleared4 h agoSan Francisco 49ersPower Rankings: Where the 49ers Stand Entering Week 10ESPNGet ready for Chargers vs. Ravens on Monday Night FootballPro Football RumorsMinor NFL Transactions: 11/10/26ESPNJets 'stand pat' at NFL trade deadlineLas Vegas RaidersFernando Mendoza, nombrado quarterback titular de los RaidersMinnesota VikingsNFL Power Rankings: Vikings Week 9 Loss to Bills Nudges Minnesota Down in Lists
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 9 · 2026Buccaneers 24 · 27 Bears

151 plays, one strand. Bears won without the lead ever changing hands; Buccaneers peaked at 46% to win, Bears at 95%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for CHI, down for TB, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Buccaneers peaked at 46% to win, Bears at 95%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Bears win, play by play. High = CHI in control, low = TB in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for CHI on offense, down for TB; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Bears ↑Buccaneers ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDTDINTINTINTINTTDINTINTFUMTDCHI ↑ HOMETB ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: TB on the left, CHI on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
TBCHI
65Plays58
354Yards353
5Explosive plays4
2Offensive TDs2
2Turnovers5
46%Peak win prob.95%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
CHITD53yTBPunt6yCHITD81yTBFG72yCHIINT61yTB–9yCHIINT0yTBPunt17yCHIFG45yTBINT45yCHIINT0yTBFG40yTBTD74yCHIPunt7yTBPunt6yCHIPunt9yTBPunt-2yCHIINT7yTBINT1yTBPunt8yCHIPunt6yTBFG53yCHIPunt24yTBPunt6yCHIFUM7yTBTD19yCHIFG53y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 5.7 expected points for Bears.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 6:11 · CHI · Touchdown

    18-C.Williams pass short middle to 10-L.Burden for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +5.7 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 4:03 · TB · Completion

    6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 1-K.Gainwell to CHI 20 for 44 yards (1-J.Johnson).

    +4.3 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 8:12 · CHI · Interception

    18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB 3. 23-T.Smith to TB 26 for 23 yards (67-G.Bradbury).

    −4.6 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 7:07 · CHI · Interception

    18-C.Williams pass deep right intended for 10-L.Burden INTERCEPTED by 27-Z.McCollum [22-K.Scott] at TB 18. 27-Z.McCollum ran ob at TB 18 for

    −4.1 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 12:41 · TB · Completion

    6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson to CHI 2 for 58 yards (6-K.Gordon). CHI-6-K.Gordon was injured during the play.

    +4.4 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 4:38 · CHI · Interception

    18-C.Williams pass short left intended for 10-L.Burden INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone (25-J.Parrish) at CHI 43. 34-A.Anzalone pushed ob at CHI

    −5.5 EP
  7. 7
    Q3 3:50 · TB · Interception

    6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Johnson at CHI 33. 1-J.Johnson for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    −9.9 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 3:48 · CHI · Fumble lost

    18-C.Williams pass short left to 10-L.Burden to CHI 19 for 4 yards (3-R.Bain; 22-K.Scott). FUMBLES (3-R.Bain), RECOVERED by TB-5-I.Melifonwu

    −3.9 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
24@27Week 9Changes the winner

If the 38-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime

Buccaneers after the play0%what really happened
BearsBuccaneersthe rest never happened

Q4 0:03 8-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. Penalty on TB-91-A.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.

Week 9

The rest of the week

Every week →
Jaguars at Ravens, Game DNA33@10Bengals at Falcons, Game DNA34@17Browns at Saints, Game DNA22@23Cowboys at Colts, Game DNA27@23Broncos at Panthers, Game DNA26@21Lions at Dolphins, Game DNA19@9Rams at Commanders, Game DNA20@13Giants at Eagles, Game DNA19@11Jets at Chiefs, Game DNA12@35Texans at Chargers, Game DNA44@22Raiders at 49ers, Game DNA17@38Cardinals at Seahawks, Game DNA3@17Packers at Patriots, Game DNA45@27Bills at Vikings, Game DNA23@6