Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000Line MovementOpening vs closing, every game since 2023
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
Pro Football RumorsSteelers Soured On Calvin Ridley; Pursued Brian Thomas Jr., Josh DownsMinnesota VikingsMailbag: Vikings Fans React to Week 9 as NFL Trade Deadline ClearsSeattle SeahawksSeahawks Mailbag: Trade Deadline, Drew Lock & MoreJacksonville JaguarsJaguars GM James Gladstone: "This Is About Team Building…"ESPN2026 NFL trade deadline winners, losers: Kirk Cousins, Josh Downs, Bengals, moreInjuryShy Tuttle: Questionable → Active57 min agoPro Football RumorsCardinals’ Budda Baker Interested In Joining Contender; Bills, Jags Checked InBuffalo Bills'A difference maker' | Bills GM Brandon Beane details how Amani Hooker trade went down and how he'll fitInjuryChig Okonkwo: Questionable → Active1 h agoSeattle SeahawksFantasy Football Week 10 Guide: Top Starts And Waiver Wire RankingsESPNFrom 2-7 to 6-2: Josh Downs reacts to Chiefs trade with Vince Carter GIFInjuryCharlie Jones: Questionable → Active1 h agoInjuryCarl Granderson: Active → Cleared1 h agoPro Football RumorsRaiders Name Fernando Mendoza Starting QBLas Vegas RaidersFernando Mendoza named Raiders' starting quarterbackCleveland BrownsBrowns announce unofficial depth chart for Week 10 vs. the TexansPro Football RumorsVikings Had Interest In Justin Herbert, Daniel Jones, Geno SmithLos Angeles RamsFirst Look: Rams take on Cardinals in Arizona in Week 10 riding three-game win streakVikings DeskVikings lose by 17 and the snaps say it should have been worse2 h agoInjuryCam Skattebo: Active → Out3 h agoInjuryJ.J. McCarthy: Active → Questionable3 h agoGiants DeskJameis Winston's minus-0.05 EPA per play meets a Commanders defense ranked 20th3 h ago
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 6 · 2026Bills 33 · 30 Raiders

146 plays, one strand. Bills won after 2 lead changes; Bills peaked at 99% to win, Raiders at 70%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for LV, down for BUF, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom line2 lead changes; Bills peaked at 99% to win, Raiders at 70%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Raiders win, play by play. High = LV in control, low = BUF in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for LV on offense, down for BUF; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Raiders ↑Bills ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDTDINTTDTDTDTDLV ↑ HOMEBUF ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: BUF on the left, LV on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
BUFLV
61Plays61
348Yards378
5Explosive plays6
3Offensive TDs3
0Turnovers1
99%Peak win prob.70%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
BUFFG30yLVTD64yBUFFG63yLVPunt6yBUFTD90yLVFG61yBUFPunt-7yLVFG39yLVPunt0yBUFFG47yLVINT-2yBUFTD14yLVFG75yBUFPunt16yLVTD91yBUFTD66yLVPunt0yBUFFG29yLVTD44y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.8 expected points for Bills.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 12:49 · BUF · Completion

    17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson pushed ob at LV 28 for 14 yards (11-J.Chinn).

    +2.8 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 8:50 · LV · Completion

    8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker to BUF 41 for 26 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).

    +2.6 EP
  3. 3
    Q3 9:00 · LV · Interception

    8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Williams at LV 32. 42-D.Williams to LV 32 for no gain (87-M.Mayer)

    −5.0 EP
  4. 4
    Q3 6:30 · BUF · Touchdown

    17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby].

    +3.1 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 2:56 · LV · Completion

    8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 87-M.Mayer to BUF 30 for 28 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr).

    +3.5 EP
  6. 6
    Q4 8:13 · LV · Touchdown

    8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +3.1 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 4:56 · BUF · Completion

    17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at LV 3 for 26 yards (11-J.Chinn).

    +2.7 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 1:39 · LV · Touchdown

    8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +4.2 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
33@30Week 6Changes the winner

If the 47-yard kick had missed

Raiders after the play44%what really happened
RaidersBillsthe rest never happened

Q3 9:50 16-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

Week 6

The rest of the week

Every week →
Seahawks at Broncos, Game DNA14@17Texans at Jaguars, Game DNA34@31Ravens at Browns, Game DNA10@13Panthers at Eagles, Game DNA25@14Bears at Falcons, Game DNA31@23Saints at Giants, Game DNA34@27Jets at Patriots, Game DNA19@26Steelers at Buccaneers, Game DNA26@19Titans at Colts, Game DNA26@20Cardinals at Rams, Game DNA18@16Chargers at Chiefs, Game DNA6@22Cowboys at Packers, Game DNA13@23Commanders at 49ers, Game DNA17@23