Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000Line MovementOpening vs closing, every game since 2023
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
Lions DeskLions offense has slid from 0.326 EPA a play in Week 5 to 0.009 in Week 9just nowColts DeskColts rank 32nd against the run while the offense rushes at a top-five level10 min agoInjuryJacob Rodriguez: Active → Cleared11 min agoInjuryJaylen Wright: Questionable → Active11 min agoInjuryAbdul Carter: Questionable → Active11 min agoInjuryPatrick Mahomes: Active → Questionable11 min agoInjuryDalton Kincaid: Active → Questionable11 min agoInjuryTrey Smack: Active → Questionable11 min agoInjuryTucker Addington: Active → Questionable11 min agoInjuryJared Goff: Active → Questionable26 min agoMinnesota VikingsInitial Vikings at Packers Injury Report for Week 10 of 2026Minnesota VikingsVikings Sign RB Damon Bankston & LB Josh Ross to Practice SquadSaints DeskSaints offense sits 22nd in EPA per play heading into Panthers game41 min agoGreen Bay PackersPackers QB Jordan Love goes back-to-back as FedEx Air and Ground Player of WeekKansas City ChiefsWeek 10 Injury Report | Chiefs vs. FalconsDolphins DeskDolphins offense found its footing in Week 7 and lost it by Week 950 min agoBroncos DeskBroncos defense is giving back ground just as the offense finds its footing51 min agoGreen Bay PackersPackers-Vikings Injury Report | Nov. 11, 2026Tennessee TitansQuick Hits on the Titans From Wednesday of Jaguars WeekArizona CardinalsMichael Wilson Prognosis Good For 2027 ReturnDallas CowboysQuinnen Williams is all business in eyeing the 49ersPro Football RumorsLongtime Steelers RB, Coach Dick Hoak Dies At 86
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 2 · 2026Panthers 34 · 3 Falcons

149 plays, one strand. Panthers won without the lead ever changing hands; Panthers peaked at 100% to win, Falcons at 42%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for ATL, down for CAR, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Panthers peaked at 100% to win, Falcons at 42%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Falcons win, play by play. High = ATL in control, low = CAR in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for ATL on offense, down for CAR; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Falcons ↑Panthers ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1FUMTDINTTDTDINTINTFUMATL ↑ HOMECAR ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: CAR on the left, ATL on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
CARATL
59Plays67
344Yards286
6Explosive plays0
3Offensive TDs0
0Turnovers5
100%Peak win prob.42%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
ATLFUM9yCARTD52yATLINT19yCARPunt0yATLPunt5yCARFG10yATL–37yCARPunt4yATLPunt12yCARFG73yATLFG76yCARTD73yATL–4yCARTD83yATLINT27yCAR–18yATLINT8yATLPunt19yCARPunt34yATLFG ✕39yCARPunt-3yATLFUM31y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 4.8 expected points against Falcons.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 15:00 · ATL · Fumble lost

    13-C.Rush scrambles right end to ATL 29 for 9 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). FUMBLES (20-Z.Wheatley), RECOVERED by CAR-21-N.Scott at ATL 35. The Rep

    −4.8 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 10:51 · CAR · Touchdown

    9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +4.0 EP
  3. 3
    Q1 9:07 · ATL · Interception

    13-C.Rush pass short middle intended for 7-Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke (55-D.Lloyd) at CAR 41. 58-B.Okereke to CAR 44 for 3 yard

    −4.0 EP
  4. 4
    Q1 0:46 · ATL · Run

    5-D.London left end to CAR 33 for -2 yards (55-D.Lloyd).

    −4.1 EP
  5. 5
    Q2 0:48 · CAR · Completion

    9-B.Young pass deep middle to 17-X.Legette to ATL 10 for 55 yards (21-M.Hughes).

    +4.2 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 7:13 · ATL · Interception

    13-C.Rush pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Lloyd at CAR 27. 55-D.Lloyd to ATL 20 for 53 yards (5-D.London).

    −8.1 EP
  7. 7
    Q3 3:08 · ATL · Interception

    18-J.Strand pass short right intended for 4-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Lloyd (8-Ja.Horn) at ATL 16. 55-D.Lloyd for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    −6.8 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 0:50 · ATL · Fumble lost

    18-J.Strand sacked at ATL 47 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by CAR-94-A.Hall at ATL 46.

    −4.6 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
34@3Week 2Changes the winner

If the Falcons had fallen on their own fumble

Falcons after the play40%what really happened
FalconsPanthersthe rest never happened

Q1 15:00 13-C.Rush scrambles right end to ATL 29 for 9 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). FUMBLES (20-Z.Wheatley), RECOVERED by CAR-21-N.Scott at ATL 35. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Week 2

The rest of the week

Every week →
Lions at Bills, Game DNA31@41Bengals at Texans, Game DNA20@6Browns at Buccaneers, Game DNA23@19Packers at Jets, Game DNA20@17Vikings at Bears, Game DNA9@3Saints at Ravens, Game DNA24@17Eagles at Titans, Game DNA24@20Steelers at Patriots, Game DNA3@20Jaguars at Broncos, Game DNA13@20Raiders at Chargers, Game DNA26@14Dolphins at 49ers, Game DNA13@35Seahawks at Cardinals, Game DNA31@7Commanders at Cowboys, Game DNA20@37Colts at Chiefs, Game DNA30@33Giants at Rams, Game DNA6@28