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The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 2 · 2026Lions 31 · 41 Bills

146 plays, one strand. Bills won without the lead ever changing hands; Lions peaked at 47% to win, Bills at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for BUF, down for DET, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Lions peaked at 47% to win, Bills at 100%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Bills win, play by play. High = BUF in control, low = DET in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for BUF on offense, down for DET; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Bills ↑Lions ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDBUF ↑ HOMEDET ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: DET on the left, BUF on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
DETBUF
62Plays66
355Yards449
6Explosive plays11
4Offensive TDs6
0Turnovers0
47%Peak win prob.100%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
BUFTD80yDETPunt-5yBUFTD79yDETPunt15yBUFTD50yDETTD80yBUFTD78yDETPunt8yBUFPunt12yDETFG57yDETTD74yBUFTD73yDETTD58yBUFPunt15yDETPunt0yBUFTD61yDETTD68yBUF–1y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 5.5 expected points for Bills.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 3:49 · BUF · Touchdown

    17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-S.Gill-Howard].

    +5.5 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 2:25 · DET · Sack

    16-J.Goff sacked at 50 for -9 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], recovered by DET-89-B.Wright at DET 49.

    −2.5 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 4:22 · BUF · Run

    4-J.Cook left guard pushed ob at DET 13 for 35 yards (4-D.Reed).

    +2.3 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 2:56 · BUF · Touchdown

    17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 86-D.Kincaid for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +3.3 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 11:40 · DET · Completion

    16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to BUF 22 for 18 yards (37-J.Hancock).

    +4.3 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 0:28 · DET · Completion

    16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at BUF 32 for 34 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).

    +3.0 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 2:12 · DET · Completion

    16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa pushed ob at DET 44 for 20 yards (47-C.Benford).

    +2.9 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 1:48 · DET · Touchdown

    16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-M.Danna].

    +3.5 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
31@41Week 2Changes the winner

If the Lions had recovered that fumble

Lions after the play47%what really happened
BillsLionsthe rest never happened

Q1 13:48 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 32 for -4 yards (97-A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (97-A.Hutchinson) [97-A.Hutchinson], recovered by BUF-79-S.Brown at BUF 31.

Week 2

The rest of the week

Every week →
Panthers at Falcons, Game DNA34@3Bengals at Texans, Game DNA20@6Browns at Buccaneers, Game DNA23@19Packers at Jets, Game DNA20@17Vikings at Bears, Game DNA9@3Saints at Ravens, Game DNA24@17Eagles at Titans, Game DNA24@20Steelers at Patriots, Game DNA3@20Jaguars at Broncos, Game DNA13@20Raiders at Chargers, Game DNA26@14Dolphins at 49ers, Game DNA13@35Seahawks at Cardinals, Game DNA31@7Commanders at Cowboys, Game DNA20@37Colts at Chiefs, Game DNA30@33Giants at Rams, Game DNA6@28