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The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 2 · 2026Colts 30 · 33 Chiefs

163 plays, one strand. Chiefs won after 5 lead changes; Colts peaked at 71% to win, Chiefs at 92%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for KC, down for IND, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom line5 lead changes; Colts peaked at 71% to win, Chiefs at 92%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Chiefs win, play by play. High = KC in control, low = IND in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for KC on offense, down for IND; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Chiefs ↑Colts ↓
Q2Q3Q4OTQ1TDINTTDTDTDTDTDKC ↑ HOMEIND ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: IND on the left, KC on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
INDKC
63Plays78
329Yards523
4Explosive plays8
3Offensive TDs3
1Turnovers0
71%Peak win prob.92%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
INDTD68yKCFG36yINDINT4yKCTD16yINDFG34yKCFG ✕37yINDFG12yKCTD80yINDTD49yKCPunt0yIND–1yKCTD80yINDPunt21yKCFG91yINDTD59yKCPunt16yINDPunt31yKC–61yKCFG60yINDFG50yKCFG46y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.3 expected points for Colts.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 9:34 · IND · Completion

    17-D.Jones pass short middle to 2-J.Downs to KC 3 for 11 yards (38-L.Sneed). PENALTY on KC-21-J.Hicks, Roughing the Passer, 2 yards, enforce

    +2.3 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 5:25 · IND · Interception

    17-D.Jones pass short left intended for 10-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 8-K.Fulton at IND 16. 8-K.Fulton to IND 16 for no gain.

    −4.7 EP
  3. 3
    Q1 2:27 · IND · Run

    67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left guard to KC 46 for 3 yards (95-C.Jones).

    +2.4 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 12:47 · KC · Missed field goal

    7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    −2.6 EP
  5. 5
    Q2 1:04 · IND · Touchdown

    28-J.Taylor right end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +3.3 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 10:38 · KC · Completion

    15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 2-T.Thornton to IND 1 for 45 yards (57-J.Carlies).

    +5.1 EP
  7. 7
    OT 8:38 · KC · Completion

    15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 2-T.Thornton to IND 40 for 30 yards (30-H.Wohler).

    +3.3 EP
  8. 8
    OT 5:04 · IND · Completion

    17-D.Jones pass deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell to KC 15 for 50 yards (20-N.Williams). FUMBLES (20-N.Williams), RECOVERED by KC-38-L.Sneed at

    +3.3 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
30@33Week 2Changes the winner

If the 40-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime

Colts after the play0%what really happened
ChiefsColtsthe rest never happened

Q5 0:01 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

Week 2

The rest of the week

Every week →
Lions at Bills, Game DNA31@41Panthers at Falcons, Game DNA34@3Bengals at Texans, Game DNA20@6Browns at Buccaneers, Game DNA23@19Packers at Jets, Game DNA20@17Vikings at Bears, Game DNA9@3Saints at Ravens, Game DNA24@17Eagles at Titans, Game DNA24@20Steelers at Patriots, Game DNA3@20Jaguars at Broncos, Game DNA13@20Raiders at Chargers, Game DNA26@14Dolphins at 49ers, Game DNA13@35Seahawks at Cardinals, Game DNA31@7Commanders at Cowboys, Game DNA20@37Giants at Rams, Game DNA6@28