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Vikings DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Vikings must find open receivers for Hockenson and Jefferson without Kyler Murray

Minnesota's top-ranked defense meets Buffalo's top-ranked pass offense Monday night, and the Vikings' starting quarterback is out.

MINKyler MurrayScouting ReportvsLine BUF -3QBKyler Murray
By Vikings Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 3:40 PM ET3 min read

The matchup in numbers

The Vikings offense ranks 29th in the league at -0.096 expected points added per play, and the quarterback who ran it is out. EPA measures how many points a play adds or costs compared with an average play from the same down, distance and field position. Kyler Murray, listed Out with a hamstring injury, posted -0.04 EPA per play and a 40 percent success rate over 185 plays, good for 920 yards.

The Bills sit at the other end. Buffalo's offense is second at 0.173 EPA per play with a 49 percent success rate, and it ranks first in pass offense and fifth in rush offense. Minnesota's defense is first at -0.169 EPA allowed per play and first against the pass.

Both teams are 6-1. Buffalo holds the No. 1 seed with a point differential of +52, and Minnesota holds the No. 2 seed at +47. The Vikings are 3-0 at home, and the Bills are 3-0 on the road.

Where they can win it

The Vikings have two receivers who turn targets into points. T.J. Hockenson has 37 targets at 0.67 EPA per play and a 62 percent success rate. Justin Jefferson has 41 targets, 335 yards, 0.53 EPA per play and a 54 percent success rate. They take 20 percent and 22 percent of the target share.

Buffalo's pass defense ranks 24th and allows a 46 percent success rate overall. That is the soft spot, and the design question is how Minnesota gets Hockenson and Jefferson free against it. The run game is a weaker route. Aaron Jones Sr. has 110 carries at -0.19 EPA per play and a 35 percent success rate, and Jordan Mason has 38 carries at -0.24 and 26 percent. The Bills rank 17th against the run.

The defense gives Minnesota a second path. Its last four listed results allowed 10, 13, 10 and 19 points, and the Vikings went 3-1 in them with scores of 15, 23 and 16 in the wins.

The worry

The supply of other options is thin. Jordan Addison has 34 targets, 249 yards and a -0.24 EPA per play. Jones Sr. has 21 targets with a 19 percent success rate and 90 yards. If defenders stay on Hockenson and Jefferson, the Vikings have few proven ways to punish that.

Buffalo's offense can finish drives from many places. Josh Allen has 1,715 yards at 0.29 EPA per play, with Dalton Kincaid at 401 yards, Khalil Shakir at 344 and Keon Coleman at 297 yards and 0.68 EPA per play. James Cook III adds 707 rushing yards. The Bills scored 36 on the Ravens last week, and they put up 33 at the Raiders and 37 at the Rams. Minnesota has not scored more than 23 in any game listed in the brief, and it lost 15-19 at the Lions in Week 8. The Vikings are on a one-game losing streak.

The Bills defense is not a lock to hold up its end. It ranks 23rd at 0.063 EPA allowed per play, so points will be available for a Minnesota offense that can sustain drives.

Availability

Murray is Out. Receiver Jauan Jennings (calf) and running back Demond Claiborne (knee) are also Out, and neither is a starter. Safety Jay Ward is Questionable with a knee injury.

For Buffalo, tackles Alec Anderson (ankle) and Dion Dawkins (ribs) are both Questionable, and both are starters. Receiver Joshua Palmer is Out, defensive tackle Greg Gaines is Questionable, and cornerback Jordan Hancock is on Injured Reserve. The final injury reports before the 8:15 PM ET kickoff Monday at U.S. Bank Stadium, on ABC and ESPN, will show whether both Bills tackles play.

The line is Buffalo by 3 with a total of 43.5, context for how the market views a game between two 6-1 teams.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.