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Patriots DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Packers rank 32nd in rushing offense as they arrive at Gillette

Green Bay's run game is the league's weakest, and New England's pass offense ranks sixth. Both teams are 5-3 on Sunday.

Scouting ReportGround gamevsLine NE -3
By Patriots Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 3:30 PM ET3 min read

The Packers rank 32nd in rushing offense. MarShawn Lloyd leads their backs with 149 yards on 57 plays, at minus-0.35 expected points added per play. EPA measures how much each play raises or lowers a team's scoring expectation, and a negative figure means the play hurt the drive on average. Josh Jacobs has 75 yards on 32 plays at minus-0.15.

That is the starting point for Sunday's game at Gillette Stadium (4:25 PM ET, Fox). Both teams are 5-3 and both won last week. New England beat the Dolphins 24-19, and Green Bay beat the Panthers 27-19.

The matchup in numbers

The Patriots' offense ranks eighth at 0.063 EPA per play, with a 46 percent success rate. The Packers' offense ranks 16th at 0.005 and succeeds on 40 percent of plays. Green Bay's defense ranks seventh at minus-0.069 EPA allowed per play. New England's defense ranks 16th at 0.009.

The Patriots have outscored opponents by 22 points this season, 184 to 162. Green Bay's margin is 7 (171 to 164), a gap of 15 points. New England is 3-0 at home. Green Bay is 2-2 on the road.

Where they can win it

The route is through the air. Drake Maye has 1,909 yards on 276 plays at 0.22 EPA per play, with a 53 percent success rate and a completion rate 7.3 points above expectation. New England's pass offense ranks sixth. Green Bay's pass defense ranks sixth, so this is the strongest unit against the strongest unit.

DeMario Douglas has 332 yards at 0.57 EPA per target. Romeo Doubs has 261 yards at 0.52. Hunter Henry has 326 yards and a 71 percent success rate on his targets, the best rate of the four main receivers.

On defense, the Patriots rank 14th against the run. Green Bay will have trouble forcing the issue on the ground, and Jordan Love's passing numbers sit in the middle. He has 2,170 yards on 328 plays at 0.13 EPA per play, with a 43 percent success rate and a completion rate 1.1 points below expectation.

The worry

The New England run game is not producing. The Patriots rank 23rd in rushing offense. Rhamondre Stevenson has 367 yards on 96 plays at minus-0.05 EPA per play and a 40 percent success rate. TreVeyon Henderson has 203 yards at minus-0.25. A drive that stalls on first and second down leaves Maye in third-and-long against a pass defense that ranks sixth.

The Patriots' own pass defense ranks 18th. Christian Watson has 708 yards at 0.46 EPA per target, and Tucker Kraft has 350 yards at 0.44. Matthew Golden leads Green Bay with a 27 percent target share.

Availability

A.J. Brown is out with a knee injury, a loss for a starting receiver group. Henry (foot) and tackle Morgan Moses (foot) are both questionable and both start. Henderson is out with an illness. Safety Brenden Schooler is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Green Bay is thinner up front. Tackle Travis Glover (knee) and guard Sean Rhyan (ankle) are out, and so is linebacker Zaire Franklin (shin). Cornerback Keisean Nixon is questionable with a groin injury. Lloyd is questionable with a knee injury. Micah Parsons is out with a knee injury, an ACL.

The Patriots sit second in the AFC East behind Buffalo, at 6-1. Green Bay is fourth in the NFC North, behind Minnesota at 6-1, Chicago at 6-2 and Detroit at 5-2. The inactive lists will settle the line questions on both sides before kickoff.

New England is a 3-point favorite with the total at 44.5, which is context for how the market reads two even records and not a pick.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.