Broncos at Patriots: Week 17 preview, odds and injuries

Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3 · Gillette Stadium12 AM ET

at12 AMET · TBD

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

The Denver Broncos (7-2) visit the New England Patriots (5-4) on Sun, Jan 3, time TBD at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA (Week 17, 2026 season).

When and where is Broncos vs Patriots?

Sun, Jan 3, time TBD at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.

Who is injured for Broncos vs Patriots?

Broncos: Brandon Jones (S, out, hamstring), Kris Abrams-Draine (CB, out, ankle), Talanoa Hufanga (S, out, ankle), Jaylen Waddle (WR, questionable, concussion) and Riley Moss (CB, questionable, concussion). Patriots: Ben Brown (C, doubtful, knee), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, doubtful, knee), A.J. Brown (WR, questionable, knee), Brenden Schooler (S, questionable, hamstring), Carlton Davis III (CB, questionable, knee) and Charles Woods (CB, questionable, hamstring) (plus 2 more).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Broncos at Patriots: Week 17 preview”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2027-01-03-den-at-ne (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

Regular season through week 16 · rank out of 32

Where this game will be decided

1Patriots third-down defense vs Broncos third-down offense
The Patriots' third-down defense ranks 10th in third-down conversion rate (37.6% allowed, 109 third downs faced) and faces a Broncos third-down offense ranked 31st (33.6%, 110 third downs).
31stDEN offense21 spots apart10thNE defense
2Broncos ball security vs Patriots takeaway defense
The Broncos' ball security ranks 4th in turnovers per game (0.7 giveaways a game, 9 games) against a Patriots takeaway defense ranked 26th (0.9 takeaways a game, 9 games).
4thDEN offense22 spots apart26thNE defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
3Patriots big-play offense vs Broncos defense against big plays
The Patriots' big-play offense ranks 3rd in explosive-play rate (11.5%, 547 plays) against a Broncos defense against big plays ranked 17th (9.5% allowed, 608 plays faced).
3rdNE offense14 spots apart17thDEN defense

When the Broncos have the ballNo big edge

DEN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNE pass defense

20th+0.02310 dropbacks

+0.14 allowed323 dropbacks faced24th

DEN run gameEPA per rushNE run defense

15th-0.07207 rushes

-0.10 allowed212 rushes faced13th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Patriots have the ballEdge NE · +8 ranks

NE dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDEN pass defense

10th+0.15330 dropbacks

-0.00 allowed383 dropbacks faced12th

NE run gameEPA per rushDEN run defense

21st-0.12217 rushes

NE +8

-0.02 allowed225 rushes faced29th

Third downEdge NE · +21 ranks

DEN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNE third-down defense

31st33.6%110 third downs

NE +21

37.6% allowed109 third downs faced10th

NE third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDEN third-down defense

9th43.4%106 third downs

NE +11

41.5% allowed130 third downs faced20th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge DEN · +9 ranks

DEN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNE red-zone defense

8th65%26 trips

50% allowed32 trips faced11th

NE red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDEN red-zone defense

21st54%26 trips

DEN +9

52% allowed29 trips faced12th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge NE · +14 ranks

DEN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNE defense against big plays

30th7.0%517 plays

10.1% allowed535 plays faced24th

NE big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDEN defense against big plays

3rd11.5%547 plays

NE +14

9.5% allowed608 plays faced17th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

DEN pass protectionsack rateNE pass rush

3rd3.5% sacked310 dropbacks

7.7% of dropbacks323 dropbacks faced5th

NE pass protectionsack rateDEN pass rush

17th6.1% sacked330 dropbacks

6.8% of dropbacks383 dropbacks faced12th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge DEN · +22 ranks

DEN ball securityturnovers per gameNE takeaway defense

4th0.7 giveaways a game9 games

DEN +22

0.9 takeaways a game9 games26th

NE ball securityturnovers per gameDEN takeaway defense

31st2.1 giveaways a game9 games

DEN +18

1.3 takeaways a game9 games13th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

AbsencesDEN 3 · NE 2 regulars out or doubtful

Broncos5 listed

3 of them are regulars ruled out or doubtful (60%+ of their unit's snaps across 3+ weeks on the field).

OUTTalanoa HufangaS93% defense · 5 wk
OUTBrandon JonesS91% defense · 8 wk
QRiley MossCB75% defense · 8 wk
OUTKris Abrams-DraineCB72% defense · 8 wk
QJaylen WaddleWR59% offense · 9 wk

Patriots8 listed

2 of them are regulars ruled out or doubtful (60%+ of their unit's snaps across 3+ weeks on the field).

QWill CampbellOT90% offense · 9 wk
QCarlton Davis IIICB87% defense · 5 wk
QA.J. BrownWR70% offense · 3 wk
DBen BrownC67% offense · 7 wk
DRhamondre StevensonRB64% offense · 9 wk
QCharles WoodsCB44% defense · 8 wk
QTreVeyon HendersonRB33% offense · 6 wk
QBrenden SchoolerS9% defense · 5 wk

Snap share is the average of the weeks each player was on the field this season. Full injury report ↓

Rest & travelDEN +2 days of rest · DEN travels 1,758 mi

AwayBroncos

9days since last game

1,758miles to get here

2time zones

Last: Fri wk 16 vs BUF · 8,549 mi flown this season

Long trip2 time zones

Rest edge+2DEN daysTravel gap 1,758 mi

HomePatriots

7days since last game

0miles · home

0time zones

Last: Sun wk 16 at NYJ · East Rutherford · 11,863 mi flown this season

Normal week

League splits for these situations ↓

Sample: DEN 9 games, 517 offensive and 608 defensive plays · NE 9 games, 547 offensive and 535 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Season to date · rank out of 32