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Patriots DeskThe TapeGame center →

Four Patriots turnovers and a 49-yard bomb decided it before Gillette settled

Drake Maye threw three interceptions, and Green Bay scored on eight of 14 drives in a 45-27 Week 9 win over New England.

Drake MayeThe TapeL 27–45vsPACKERSQBDrake Maye
By Patriots Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 8, 9:30 PM ET3 min read

The deciding stretch

The first 90 seconds set the terms. On the Patriots' first snap of the game, Drake Maye threw deep left for M.Hollins and X.McKinney intercepted it at midfield. McKinney was pushed out at the New England 14 after a 36-yard return. J.Love scrambled up the middle for a 13-yard touchdown at 13:19 of the first quarter.

Green Bay was not finished. Two drives later, Love threw deep right to M.Golden for 49 yards to the New England 18, with K.Byard in coverage. That play was worth seven points of win probability, the same as the touchdown scramble. The Packers led 14-0 after one quarter.

The Patriots had been a 3-point favorite before kickoff. The opening quarter erased that margin, and the rest of the game never put it back.

The swing

The best moment for New England came at 9:23 of the second quarter. Maye threw deep left from the shotgun to Rhamondre Stevenson for a 30-yard touchdown. It added 10 points of win probability, the largest gain on the board for the Patriots. New England outscored Green Bay 14-10 in the second quarter.

The third quarter reversed it. The Packers scored 18 points to the Patriots' 7, and the gap grew from one score to three. Green Bay finished with eight scoring drives on 14 possessions. New England had four on 13, all of them touchdowns, so the Patriots turned their possessions into points less often and lost the volume contest.

The turnovers explain most of that. New England gave the ball away four times, and Maye threw three of the interceptions. Green Bay's team line shows none.

Who moved the needle

Maye finished 21 of 38 for 299 yards and three touchdowns, with the three interceptions and four sacks for 27 yards. His 43 plays carried a total of minus-10.0 in expected points added. EPA is the points a play adds or costs against what the offense could expect from that down and distance. It was the lowest figure on the roster. The Patriots averaged minus-0.221 EPA per dropback, against plus-0.759 for the Packers.

The receivers did what they could. Efton Chism III led the team at plus-5.7 EPA on five plays. He caught five passes for 49 yards and a touchdown. DeMario Douglas caught five of nine targets for 102 yards and a long of 36, worth plus-3.8. Hunter Henry added plus-3.5 on three plays. Kyle Williams was the low mark among receivers at minus-5.1 on three plays.

The run game was efficient and underused. Corey Kiner carried six times for 34 yards and a touchdown. Rhamondre Stevenson had six carries for 32 yards. The team averaged 5.2 yards per rush, against 4.0 for Green Bay, but ran only 14 times for 73 yards.

On defense, Elijah Ponder had 1.5 sacks and Christian Barmore one. Christian Gonzalez made 10 tackles, nine of them solo, and broke up a pass.

Where it leaves them

The situational numbers were close. The Patriots converted four of nine third downs and went two for two in the red zone. Green Bay was four of 12 on third down and four of five in the red zone. Neither side won on third down. Green Bay won on yardage, with 478 total yards to 366 and 10.9 yards per pass to 6.5. The Packers also held the ball for 35:01 to New England's 23:52.

New England is 5-4 with a point differential of plus-4 and the seventh seed in the conference. The Bills lead the division at 6-1, and the Patriots are second. The Patriots are 3-1 at home and 2-3 on the road.

Detroit is next. The Patriots play the Lions on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 9:30 a.m. ET on Fox, in Week 10.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.