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Broncos DeskThe TapeGame center →

Bonitto's strip sack on B.Young closes out Broncos' 26-21 win over Panthers

Denver gained fewer yards and posted a lower EPA per play than Carolina, then won on a fourth-quarter fumble recovery and two scoring drives.

Nik BonittoThe TapeW 26–21atPANTHERSLBNik Bonitto
By Broncos Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 8, 6:01 PM ET3 min read

The deciding stretch

Nik Bonitto sacked B.Young at the Denver 44 with 1:24 left in the fourth quarter, forced a fumble and recovered it himself. The replay official upheld the ruling. The play moved Denver's win probability by 32 points, the largest swing of the afternoon.

The Broncos beat the Panthers 26-21 at Bank of America Stadium, and the margin came from that kind of play, not from the efficiency numbers. Denver was outgained 353 yards to 312 and had 28 first downs against Carolina's 27. The Panthers were also better by EPA per play (expected points added, a measure of how much each snap changes a team's scoring outlook): 0.125 to 0.043.

Denver led 13-0 at one point before Carolina answered with a touchdown in each of the last three quarters. The Broncos outscored the Panthers 13-7 in the fourth.

The swing

The third quarter held the other big turn. With 1:35 left, Denver challenged an incomplete pass to T.Tremble, and the ruling was reversed. Two plays later Jonah Coleman ran right guard for 7 yards to the Denver 27, a play worth 23 points of win probability.

Carolina's longest drive was 12 plays and 87 yards, and it ended in an interception. That was one of two Panthers turnovers. Denver gave the ball away once. The Broncos also held Carolina to 3-for-10 on third down while converting 6 of 10 themselves.

Carolina did win on fourth down, going 3-for-3. The Panthers also reached the red zone on three of four trips, against two of four for Denver. Their 13 penalties for 119 yards, compared with Denver's 8 for 50, kept some of that work from turning into more points.

The Broncos' defense took three sacks for 19 yards lost. Bonitto finished with one sack, two tackles for loss and a quarterback hit. Jonathon Cooper added half a sack and a hit.

Who moved the needle

Bo Nix went 25 of 37 for 237 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, a 91.8 rating. His 39 dropbacks and passes added 7.3 total EPA, the best mark on either side. Denver's EPA per dropback was 0.187, a little above Carolina's 0.177.

Pat Bryant had the biggest per-play effect. He caught four of five targets for 56 yards and a touchdown, with a long of 26, and produced 5.5 EPA on just five plays. Troy Franklin added 3.4 EPA on four plays. Courtland Sutton led the team in targets with nine, catching five for 45 yards and a touchdown.

The run game cost Denver. Broncos runs averaged 3.0 yards per carry and posted an EPA per rush of -0.174, against Carolina's 4.8 and 0.009. Coleman carried 17 times for 57 yards and a touchdown, but those carries totaled -2.2 EPA. Nix's five rushes came to -3.3 EPA. J.K. Dobbins had four carries for 18 yards.

Jahdae Barron led the defenders with eight tackles, six of them solo.

Where it leaves them

Denver is 7-2 with a five-game winning streak. The Broncos hold the second seed in the conference and first place in the division, a game ahead of the Chiefs at 6-2. They are 3-2 on the road and 4-0 at home, with a point differential of plus 12 on 198 points scored and 186 allowed.

The margin for error is thin. A team that wins while posting a lower EPA per play than its opponent depends on takeaways and sacks to cover the gap, and Denver did that here. The run game, at 3.0 yards per carry, is the clearest place for that gap to close.

Next up is the Las Vegas Raiders, 4-4, at home in Week 11. Kickoff is Sunday, Nov 22, at 4:25 PM ET on CBS.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.