Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
InjuryA.J. Brown: Out → Questionable16 min agoInjuryA.J. Brown: Questionable → Out49 min agoESPNBroncos say trade with Chargers for LB Henley 'will not be finalized'Pro Football RumorsBroncos-Bolts’ Daiyan Henley Trade NixedDenver BroncosStatement from the BroncosESPNRams optimistic about Davante Adams' return after quiet trade deadlineInjuryChristian Darrisaw: Active → Cleared7 h agoInjuryDaniel Jones: Active → Cleared7 h agoESPN49ers face questions at corner heading into Week 10InjuryChamarri Conner: Active → Cleared7 h agoInjuryTrey McBride: Active → Cleared7 h agoInjuryChris Olave: Active → Cleared7 h agoInjuryJustin Reid: Active → Cleared7 h agoCincinnati BengalsQuick Hits | Joe Burrow Eyes Drew Brees' Record Of 74.4%: 'That Would Be A Fun One To Break'Pro Football RumorsNFL Practice Squad Updates: 11/11/26ESPNTitans explain decision to keep Tony PollardESPNVeteran WR Keenan Allen feeling energized by trade to 49ersPro Football RumorsMinor NFL Transactions: 11/11/26Las Vegas RaidersGutierrez: Raiders long-term plan comes to fruition with insertion of Fernando Mendoza at quarterbackLos Angeles RamsFrom the Podium: Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford preview Rams' second meeting with CardinalsESPNSaints get Travis Etienne back at practiceArizona CardinalsFor Starters, Carson Beck Ready To Play First Game Against Rams
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
Broncos DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Broncos defense meets a Panthers offense that ranks 12th in EPA per play

Denver's pass defense ranks ninth, but its 26th-ranked run defense faces Chuba Hubbard and a Carolina ground game that ranks 12th.

Scouting ReportDefenseatLine DEN -2.5
By Broncos Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 3:20 PM ET2 min read

The matchup in numbers

The Broncos allow -0.023 expected points added per play, 13th in the league. EPA measures how much each snap moves a team's scoring chances, and a negative number allowed is good for a defense. The Panthers gain 0.031 per play on offense, 12th, with a 42 percent success rate.

The other side tilts toward Carolina as well. Denver's offense sits at -0.022 per play, 20th, with a 38 percent success rate. The Panthers defense allows 0.029 per play, 21st, and 45 percent of opposing plays succeed.

Denver is 6-2 with a four-game win streak and a +7 point differential. Carolina is 3-4 with a -15 differential, and still leads the NFC South because Tampa Bay and Atlanta are both 3-5. The Panthers have lost two straight, 43-13 to the Buccaneers and 27-19 at Green Bay.

Where they can win it

The Broncos can win on the ground. Carolina's rush defense ranks 28th, and Denver's rush offense ranks 13th. Jonah Coleman has 30 carries at 0.08 EPA per play with a 50 percent success rate. J.K. Dobbins has 94 carries for 306 yards at -0.19 per play, with a 29 percent success rate.

The pass defense is the other lever. Denver ranks ninth against the pass, and Carolina ranks 15th in pass offense. Bryce Young has 1,785 yards at 0.05 EPA per play, with a completion rate 0.2 points below expectation. Denver's coverage has little margin for error against Tetairoa McMillan, who has 570 yards at 0.34 per play, a 59 percent success rate and a 27 percent target share.

On Denver's side, RJ Harvey has been the most efficient target at 0.22 per play and 54 percent success on 28 targets. Jaylen Waddle leads the Broncos with a 23 percent target share and 315 yards.

The worry

The Broncos rank 26th against the run, and Carolina ranks 12th running it. Chuba Hubbard has 119 carries for 540 yards at 0.06 EPA per play with a 46 percent success rate. He is also productive as a receiver, at 0.49 per play on 26 targets.

Bo Nix is the second concern. He has 271 plays and 1,449 yards at 0.00 EPA per play, with a 38 percent success rate and a completion rate 2.6 points below expectation. Courtland Sutton has 37 targets at -0.14 per play, though his 46 percent success rate is the second best among Denver's four leading targets.

Denver is 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road. This game is in Charlotte.

Availability

The Broncos list safety Brandon Jones (hamstring) and defensive end Eyioma Uwazurike (shoulder) as out, and both are starters. Safety Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) is questionable and also starts. Cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine is out, and linebacker Dondrea Tillman is questionable. Receiver Pat Bryant is on injured reserve.

Carolina is thinner at linebacker, with Jaelan Phillips (hamstring) and Bobby Okereke (foot) both out. Cornerback Will Lee III (hamstring) and guard Damien Lewis (knee) are also out, and all four are starters. Center Corey Bullock and guard Torricelli Simpkins III are questionable, so Carolina's interior line has uncertainty both ways. Receivers and backs Xavier Legette and Jonathon Brooks are on injured reserve.

Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium, on CBS. Denver is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5, a line that reflects the gap in record and point differential and is not a pick.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.