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130 plays, one strand. Dolphins won without the lead ever changing hands; Dolphins peaked at 96% to win, Jets at 57%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for NYJ, down for MIA, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Dolphins peaked at 96% to win, Jets at 57%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Jets win, play by play. High = NYJ in control, low = MIA in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for NYJ on offense, down for MIA; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Jets ↑
Dolphins ↓The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: MIA on the left, NYJ on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.9 expected points for Dolphins.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 10:57 · MIA · Touchdown+2.9 EP
2-M.Willis pass short right to 7-C.Douglas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-44-J.Sherwood, Defensive Holding, declined.
- 2Q1 10:53 · NYJ · Completion+3.2 EP
7-G.Smith pass deep right to 11-O.Cooper to MIA 13 for 52 yards (4-J.Marshall).
- 3Q1 8:42 · NYJ · Touchdown+3.0 EP
7-G.Smith pass short right to 85-M.Taylor for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 4Q2 12:06 · NYJ · Interception−4.9 EP
7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 85-M.Taylor INTERCEPTED by 16-M.Taaffe at MIA 15. 16-M.Taaffe to MIA 15 for no gain (89-J.Ruckert).
- 5Q3 10:07 · NYJ · Missed field goal−3.9 EP
19-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
- 6Q3 7:34 · NYJ · Completion+5.1 EP
7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 11-O.Cooper to MIA 10 for 60 yards (3-C.Johnson). Penalty on MIA-8-J.Brents, Defensive Holding, declined.
- 7Q4 4:55 · MIA · Touchdown+5.7 EP
2-M.Willis pass short left to 7-C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced betw
- 8Q4 4:10 · NYJ · Completion+5.1 EP
7-G.Smith pass short right to 32-I.Davis pushed ob at MIA 18 for 41 yards (11-D.Trader).
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the Jets had stopped that fourth-and-1
Q4 2:00 2-M.Willis up the middle to NYJ 47 for 2 yards (91-J.Briggs).
24@30
16@10
35@13
10@16
27@21
43@13
30@16
3@20
38@21
