The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 6 · 2026Texans 34 · 31 Jaguars

144 plays, one strand. Texans won after 2 lead changes; Texans peaked at 88% to win, Jaguars at 63%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for JAX, down for HOU, as long as the yards it gained.

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Bottom line2 lead changes; Texans peaked at 88% to win, Jaguars at 63%.

How to read this chart

Read it left to right:: kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line: is the chance that Jaguars win, play by play. High = JAX in control, low = HOU in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:: up for JAX on offense, down for HOU; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).

Jaguars ↑

Texans ↓

win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete

Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart

Each row compares the two teams: on one stat: HOU on the left, JAX on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays: are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.

HOUJAX

59Plays67

426Yards413

5Explosive plays7

4Offensive TDs4

1Turnovers1

88%Peak win prob.63%

Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart

Each tile is one possession,: in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:: the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.

JAXPunt28yHOUPunt3yJAX–18yHOUTD62yJAXINT69yHOUPunt9yJAXTD84yHOUFG57yJAXTD43yHOUTD51yJAX–0yHOUTD65yJAXPunt3yHOUPunt19yJAXTD69yHOUTD46yJAXTD61yHOUINT78yJAXFG38yHOUFG36y

Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 4.8 expected points against Jaguars.

How to read this chart

The strip is the game clock;: each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points): is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.

12345678

1
Q2 13:24 · JAX · Interception
16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 3-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at HOU -6. Touchback.
−4.8 EP
2
Q2 6:56 · JAX · Touchdown
16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 33-B.Tuten for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-0-A.Al-Shaair was injured during the play.
+3.4 EP
3
Q2 0:48 · HOU · Completion
7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 13-J.Noel to JAX 13 for 50 yards (4-Jar.Jones).
+3.3 EP
4
Q3 9:26 · HOU · Touchdown
7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+3.3 EP
5
Q3 0:58 · HOU · Touchdown
57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 25-J.Jordan left tackle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+2.8 EP
6
Q4 7:46 · HOU · Completion
7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to JAX 33 for 21 yards (12-T.Hunter; 26-K.Merriweather).
+2.7 EP
7
Q4 3:59 · HOU · Interception
57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass short right intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Hunter at JAX -5. Touchbac
−6.0 EP
8
Q4 2:00 · JAX · Field goal
39-C.Little 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
+3.2 EP

Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →

How to read this chart

The line is win probability: over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it: to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.

34@31

Week 6Changes the winner

If the 49-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime

Jaguars after the play0%what really happened

Q4 0:03 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

Week 6

The rest of the week

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