Week 6 · 2026Panthers 25 · 14 Eagles
163 plays, one strand. Panthers won without the lead ever changing hands; Panthers peaked at 100% to win, Eagles at 55%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for PHI, down for CAR, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Panthers peaked at 100% to win, Eagles at 55%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Eagles win, play by play. High = PHI in control, low = CAR in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for PHI on offense, down for CAR; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: CAR on the left, PHI on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.7 expected points for Panthers.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q2 8:33 · CAR · Completion+2.7 EP
9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to PHI 24 for 16 yards (53-Z.Baun; 11-J.Campbell). PENALTY on PHI-90-J.Davis, Roughing the Passe
- 2Q2 5:14 · PHI · Completion+2.2 EP
16-T.McKee pass short middle to 6-D.Smith to CAR 40 for 16 yards (20-Z.Wheatley).
- 3Q3 4:27 · CAR · Completion+3.3 EP
9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 42 for 32 yards (24-A.Mukuba).
- 4Q3 1:03 · CAR · Run+2.9 EP
73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to PHI 12 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter).
- 5Q4 10:48 · PHI · Touchdown+2.7 EP
16-T.McKee pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 6Q4 6:39 · CAR · Touchdown+2.5 EP
9-B.Young pass deep middle to 82-T.Tremble for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-82-T.Tremble, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
- 7Q4 4:32 · PHI · Incomplete−2.2 EP
16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith (20-Z.Wheatley).
- 8Q4 4:07 · CAR · Completion+2.2 EP
9-B.Young pass short left to 83-D.Moore to PHI 13 for 27 yards (94-B.Young).
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the Eagles had stopped that fourth-and-1
Q3 1:03 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to PHI 12 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter).