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The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 6 · 2026Bears 31 · 23 Falcons

147 plays, one strand. Bears won without the lead ever changing hands; Bears peaked at 100% to win, Falcons at 58%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for ATL, down for CHI, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Bears peaked at 100% to win, Falcons at 58%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Falcons win, play by play. High = ATL in control, low = CHI in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for ATL on offense, down for CHI; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Falcons ↑Bears ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDTDTDTDTDTDFUMTDFUMATL ↑ HOMECHI ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: CHI on the left, ATL on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
CHIATL
72Plays52
369Yards261
4Explosive plays6
4Offensive TDs3
1Turnovers1
100%Peak win prob.58%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
CHITD87yATLPunt1yCHITD67yATLPunt2yCHIPunt20yATL–37yCHIFG ✕13yATLTD54yCHIPunt40yCHITD10yATLPunt3yCHI–6yATL–6yCHIPunt31yATLPunt-3yCHITD52yCHIFG-1yATL–5yCHIPunt-3yATLTD93yCHIFUM29yATLTD59yCHIPunt-1yATLFUM4yCHI–19y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.0 expected points for Bears.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 11:24 · CHI · Completion

    18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 40 for 2 yards. Lateral to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 28 for 12 yards (56-H.Perkins)

    +3.0 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 5:15 · CHI · Completion

    18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 43 for 23 yards (21-M.Hughes).

    +3.2 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 7:23 · CHI · Missed field goal

    8-C.Santos 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    −3.5 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 5:49 · ATL · Touchdown

    9-M.Penix pass short left to 4-J.Dotson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +3.1 EP
  5. 5
    Q2 1:52 · CHI · Punt

    19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to ATL 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 17-Z.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-39-J.Blackwell at ATL 10.

    +5.1 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 10:38 · ATL · Incomplete

    9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (1-J.Johnson) [92-D.Hardy].

    −3.3 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 7:21 · CHI · Fumble lost

    23-R.Johnson up the middle to ATL 45 for 4 yards (3-J.Bates). FUMBLES (3-J.Bates), RECOVERED by ATL-56-H.Perkins at ATL 43.

    −5.6 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 3:01 · ATL · Fumble lost

    9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 14 for -8 yards (6-K.Gordon). FUMBLES (6-K.Gordon) [6-K.Gordon], RECOVERED by CHI-12-D.Bush at ATL 28. 12-D.Bush to

    −3.1 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
31@23Week 6

If the Falcons had converted that fourth-and-3

Falcons after the play9%what really happened
FalconsBearsthe rest never happened

Q3 10:38 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (1-J.Johnson) [92-D.Hardy].

Week 6

The rest of the week

Every week →
Seahawks at Broncos, Game DNA14@17Texans at Jaguars, Game DNA34@31Ravens at Browns, Game DNA10@13Panthers at Eagles, Game DNA25@14Saints at Giants, Game DNA34@27Jets at Patriots, Game DNA19@26Steelers at Buccaneers, Game DNA26@19Titans at Colts, Game DNA26@20Cardinals at Rams, Game DNA18@16Bills at Raiders, Game DNA33@30Chargers at Chiefs, Game DNA6@22Cowboys at Packers, Game DNA13@23Commanders at 49ers, Game DNA17@23