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141 plays, one strand. Patriots won after 1 lead change; Jets peaked at 57% to win, Patriots at 99%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for NE, down for NYJ, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom line1 lead change; Jets peaked at 57% to win, Patriots at 99%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Patriots win, play by play. High = NE in control, low = NYJ in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for NE on offense, down for NYJ; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Patriots ↑
Jets ↓The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: NYJ on the left, NE on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 4.1 expected points for Patriots.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 4:18 · NE · Touchdown+4.1 EP
10-D.Maye pass deep right to 87-R.Doubs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-87-R.Doubs was injured during the play.
- 2Q2 14:22 · NYJ · Run−3.2 EP
0-B.Allen right guard to NE 29 for 1 yard (14-R.Spillane; 53-C.Elliss).
- 3Q2 7:00 · NYJ · Run−3.2 EP
7-G.Smith up the middle to NE 39 for no gain (50-G.Jacas). (Virtual Measurement).
- 4Q2 0:20 · NE · Touchdown+3.8 EP
10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 5Q3 11:54 · NE · Incomplete−2.5 EP
10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 1-A.Brown (21-B.Stephens).
- 6Q3 10:32 · NYJ · Touchdown+4.4 EP
7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-O.Cooper for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 7Q3 8:17 · NE · Fumble lost−5.3 EP
32-T.Henderson right guard to NE 35 for 6 yards (31-D.Bailey; 91-J.Briggs). FUMBLES (31-D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-44-J.Sherwood at NE 36.
- 8Q4 12:31 · NYJ · Interception−3.6 EP
7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 16-K.Sadiq INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Woods at NE 24. 22-C.Woods ran ob at NE 24 for no gain.
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the Jets had stopped that fourth-and-1
Q2 5:15 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to 50 for 2 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).
14@17
34@31
31@23
26@19
26@20
18@16
6@22
17@23
