Four Daniels sacks and a Rams fourth-down run decide Commanders' 20-13 home loss

The deciding stretch

The game turned in the last three minutes of the second quarter. Nick Cross recovered a Rams fumble at the Washington 45 and returned it to the Los Angeles 40, a 10-point swing in win probability for the Commanders. Thirty-six seconds later, Jayden Daniels was sacked for a loss of 6 at the Washington 44, fumbled, and Los Angeles recovered. That play moved win probability 9 points back the other way.

The next snap carried the bigger cost. With 1:33 left in the half, M.Stafford hit P.Nacua on a short right throw for 15 yards to the Washington 23, a 12-point swing against Washington. The Commanders still led 10-6 at the half. They scored 3 more in the third quarter and none in the fourth.

The swing

Los Angeles answered with 7 points in the third quarter and 7 in the fourth. The third-quarter score followed another Stafford-to-Nacua throw, a 19-yard deep right completion to the Washington 17 with 0:19 left in the period, worth 9 points of win probability. The score was tied 13-13 going into the fourth.

The Rams then ran the ball when they needed to. They went 3-for-3 on fourth down and gained 124 rushing yards at 4.3 a carry. Seven of their 22 first downs came on the ground. Washington had one rushing first down all day, on 60 yards at 3.2 a carry.

Both teams struggled on third down, Washington at 3-for-11 and Los Angeles at 3-for-14. The difference came on the downs after those, and in the red zone, where the Rams scored on 2 of 4 trips and the Commanders on 1 of 2.

Who moved the needle

Daniels completed 23 of 34 passes for 258 yards, 1 touchdown and no interceptions, a 99.9 rating at 7.6 yards per attempt. Thirteen of Washington's 16 first downs came through the air, so the early-down passing worked when it had time. The cost came on the other side of the ledger: four sacks for 21 yards, against one sack for 9 yards on the Rams' side.

His scrambling added 16 yards on 4 carries, a 4.0 average with a long of 7. That matched Rachaad White's 4.0 average on 7 carries for 28 yards, and beat Austin Ekeler's 2.0 on 8 carries for 16.

Van Jefferson caught 5 of 7 targets for 58 yards and the touchdown. Stefon Diggs turned 3 catches into 51 yards, including a 42-yarder. White added 2 catches for 41 yards with a long of 45, and Chig Okonkwo caught 5 passes for 41. The best drive of the day went 6 plays and 80 yards for a touchdown.

On defense, Frankie Luvu made 15 tackles with 2 for loss, 1 sack and 2 quarterback hits. Sonny Styles added 12 tackles. Cross broke up 3 passes, and Quan Martin had 8 tackles. Washington also drew 6 penalties for 39 yards, well below Los Angeles's 10 for 70, so flags did not decide this one.

Where it leaves them

The Commanders are 2-5-1, with 172 points scored and 202 allowed, a differential of minus 30. They sit third in the NFC East behind the Giants at 5-2-1 and the Cowboys at 4-5, and ahead of the Eagles at 2-7. In the conference standings they rank 15th.

At Northwest Stadium they are 2-2-1. Away from it they have lost all three games. That record matters for the next date: Washington plays the Giants on Thursday, Nov. 12, at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, and the game is in New York. The Giants are the division leader, so the week 10 result also shapes the standings.