Jayden Daniels' 0.12 EPA meets a Rams defense that ranks fourth

The matchup in numbers

Jayden Daniels has produced 0.12 EPA per play on 178 passing plays, with a 46 percent success rate and 902 yards. EPA, expected points added, measures how many points a play adds compared with an average play in the same situation. His completion rate sits 5.6 points above expectation.

The offense around him is flat. The Commanders post -0.009 EPA per play, 17th in the league, with a 41 percent success rate. The defense allows 0.028 per play, 20th, and opponents succeed on 46 percent of plays against it.

The Rams are 4-4 with a point differential of +26, against -23 for Washington at 2-4-1. Los Angeles has won two straight, 35-21 at the Raiders and 24-9 over the Chargers. Washington beat the Eagles 27-10 in Week 8.

Where they can win it

The run game gives Washington little to lean on. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has 239 yards at -0.1 EPA per play with a 36 percent success rate, and Rachaad White has 200 yards at -0.03. The Rams rank third against the run, so the structure runs through Daniels and his receivers.

Those receivers have been efficient. Antonio Williams has 0.31 EPA per play on 33 targets with a 55 percent success rate. Stefon Diggs leads the team with a 20 percent target share and 0.23 EPA per play. Chig Okonkwo, at 0.06 per play and 38 percent success, has been the least productive of the four main targets.

Washington is also at home, where it is 2-1-1. The road record is 0-3.

The worry

The Rams defense allows -0.103 EPA per play, 4th in the league, with a 41 percent success rate allowed. It ranks fifth against the pass, the area where Daniels has done his best work.

Washington's pass defense ranks 21st, and Los Angeles has two receivers who test it. Puka Nacua has 565 yards on a 25 percent target share. Davante Adams has 0.45 EPA per play on 49 targets with a 57 percent success rate. Matthew Stafford has 2,058 yards at 0.07 EPA per play.

The Rams also rank sixth in rush offense, and Washington ranks 15th against the run. Kyren Williams has 548 yards, and Blake Corum has 389 yards at 0.14 EPA per play with a 52 percent success rate.

Availability

Washington lists Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown as out, and neither is a starter. Terry McLaurin is on injured reserve with a knee injury. He has 0.5 EPA per play on 28 targets, the highest mark among Washington's main targets. Laremy Tunsil, Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw are also on injured reserve.

The Rams have four starters on the report. Trent McDuffie (back), Kam Curl (foot) and Jordan Whittington (back) are questionable, and long snapper Joe Cardona (ankle) is doubtful. Colby Parkinson and Grant Stuard are also questionable.

Kickoff is Sunday, Nov 8, at 1:00 PM ET at Northwest Stadium, on Fox. The Giants lead the division at 4-2-1, and Washington sits third. The number to track is whether Daniels holds his 0.12 EPA per play against a top-five pass defense.

Los Angeles is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5, which is context for how the market sees a team with a better point differential playing on the road.