Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
InjuryA.J. Brown: Questionable → Out16 min agoESPNBroncos say trade with Chargers for LB Henley 'will not be finalized'Pro Football RumorsBroncos-Bolts’ Daiyan Henley Trade NixedDenver BroncosStatement from the BroncosESPNRams optimistic about Davante Adams' return after quiet trade deadlineInjuryDaniel Jones: Active → Cleared6 h agoInjuryChristian Darrisaw: Active → Cleared6 h agoESPN49ers face questions at corner heading into Week 10InjuryChamarri Conner: Active → Cleared6 h agoInjuryTrey McBride: Active → Cleared6 h agoInjuryChris Olave: Active → Cleared6 h agoInjuryJustin Reid: Active → Cleared6 h agoInjuryKyren Williams: Active → Cleared6 h agoCincinnati BengalsQuick Hits | Joe Burrow Eyes Drew Brees' Record Of 74.4%: 'That Would Be A Fun One To Break'Pro Football RumorsNFL Practice Squad Updates: 11/11/26ESPNTitans explain decision to keep Tony PollardESPNVeteran WR Keenan Allen feeling energized by trade to 49ersPro Football RumorsMinor NFL Transactions: 11/11/26Las Vegas RaidersGutierrez: Raiders long-term plan comes to fruition with insertion of Fernando Mendoza at quarterbackLos Angeles RamsFrom the Podium: Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford preview Rams' second meeting with CardinalsESPNSaints get Travis Etienne back at practiceArizona CardinalsFor Starters, Carson Beck Ready To Play First Game Against Rams
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
Colts DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Colts' No. 4 rushing offense meets Dallas' No. 29 rush defense at Lucas Oil

Indianapolis ranks fourth in rushing offense and Dallas 29th in rushing defense, but the Colts' run defense ranks 30th against a Cowboys offense ranked seventh.

Scouting ReportGround gamevsLine DAL -4.5
By Colts Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 2:10 PM ET2 min read

The matchup in numbers

Indianapolis ranks fourth in rushing offense, and Dallas ranks 29th in rushing defense. That is the widest gap on the board when the Colts host the Cowboys at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, Nov. 8, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox.

The Colts are 2-6 and have lost four straight. They have scored 161 points and allowed 222, a difference of minus-61. Their offense ranks 30th in EPA per play at minus-0.115, with a 42 percent success rate. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each snap raises or lowers a team's scoring chances.

Dallas is 3-5, with 219 points scored and 213 allowed. The Cowboys' offense ranks seventh at 0.091 EPA per play and a 47 percent success rate. Their defense ranks 31st, allowing 0.126 EPA per play and a 46 percent success rate.

Where they can win it

The run game is the first place to look. Jonathan Taylor has 147 carries for 606 yards, though his EPA per play is minus-0.06 and his success rate is 40 percent. Seth McGowan has 37 carries for 163 yards at a 38 percent success rate. Dallas ranks 29th against the run and 30th against the pass.

The passing game has a harder job. Daniel Jones has 1,399 yards on 299 plays, with minus-0.2 EPA per play, a 41 percent success rate and a completion rate 3.7 points below expectation. Indianapolis ranks 31st in pass offense.

The best receiving numbers belong to Josh Downs, at 0.29 EPA per target and 330 yards, and Keenan Allen, at 0.22 and 325 yards. Allen's 58 percent success rate is the highest among the Colts' main targets. Tyler Warren is at minus-0.25 EPA per target on 46 targets.

The worry

The Colts' run defense ranks 30th, and Dallas ranks ninth in rushing offense. Javonte Williams has 134 carries for 528 yards, with 0.01 EPA per play and a 45 percent success rate. Indianapolis' overall defense ranks 24th, allowing 0.065 EPA per play and a 43 percent success rate.

Dak Prescott has 1,985 yards at 0.15 EPA per play and a 49 percent success rate. CeeDee Lamb has 709 yards and a 32 percent target share. George Pickens has 533 yards at 0.41 EPA per target, and Ryan Flournoy has 342 yards at 0.33.

The recent results are lopsided. Indianapolis lost 42-7 at Jacksonville in Week 8 and has scored 7, 10, 20 and 22 points in its last four games. Dallas lost 33-30 to Arizona last week after beating Philadelphia 38-21 in Week 7.

Availability

Three Colts starters are out: cornerback Justin Walley (knee), safety A.J. Haulcy (ankle) and linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither (knee). Tackle Jalen Travis, also a starter, is questionable with a thumb injury. Wide receiver Alec Pierce is on injured reserve.

Dallas lists wide receiver KaVontae Turpin as out with a rib injury. Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and tight end Jake Ferguson are questionable. Pickens is questionable with a hamstring injury, and tight end Luke Schoonmaker is questionable with a groin injury.

The final status reports for Travis and Pickens come before the 1:00 PM ET kickoff.

Dallas is a 4.5-point favorite, and the total is 51.5.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.