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The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 9 · 2026Bills 23 · 6 Vikings

146 plays, one strand. Bills won without the lead ever changing hands; Bills peaked at 100% to win, Vikings at 65%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for MIN, down for BUF, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Bills peaked at 100% to win, Vikings at 65%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Vikings win, play by play. High = MIN in control, low = BUF in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for MIN on offense, down for BUF; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Vikings ↑Bills ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1INTFUMTDINTINTTDMIN ↑ HOMEBUF ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: BUF on the left, MIN on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
BUFMIN
75Plays45
342Yards178
3Explosive plays1
2Offensive TDs0
1Turnovers3
100%Peak win prob.65%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
BUFPunt-6yMINPunt6yBUFINT44yMINFUM0yBUFFG23yMINPunt5yBUFPunt-1yMINPunt5yBUFPunt2yMINPunt10yBUFPunt1yMINFG9yBUFTD80yMINFG51yMININT6yBUFFG78yMININT24yBUFPunt30yMINPunt4yBUFTD84yMIN–6yBUFFG7yMIN–52y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 4.7 expected points against Bills.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 5:46 · BUF · Interception

    17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN -7. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 47 for 54 yards (68-T.Grable).

    −4.7 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 5:30 · MIN · Fumble lost

    11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Jefferson. Buffalo challenged the forward pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 11-C.Wentz

    −6.0 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 0:53 · BUF · Touchdown

    17-J.Allen pass deep right to 83-K.Latu for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-A.Van Ginkel].

    +3.2 EP
  4. 4
    Q3 13:17 · MIN · Interception

    11-C.Wentz pass deep right intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Williams at BUF 11. 42-D.Williams to BUF 11 for no gain (87-T.Hoc

    −4.2 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 11:08 · BUF · Completion

    17-J.Allen pass deep left to 26-T.Johnson to MIN 39 for 36 yards (29-Jac.Thomas).

    +3.8 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 4:10 · MIN · Interception

    11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 8-T.Bernard at BUF 34. 8-T.Bernard to BUF 39 for 5 yards (75-B.O'Nei

    −4.9 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 5:41 · MIN · Incomplete

    11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Jefferson.

    −3.1 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 2:00 · MIN · Completion

    12-M.Brosmer pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to BUF 13 for 8 yards (8-T.Bernard; 21-D.Igbinosun).

    −2.4 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
23@6Week 9

If the Vikings had stopped that fourth-and-1

Vikings after the play9%what really happened
VikingsBillsthe rest never happened

Q4 10:15 17-J.Allen left guard to MIN 38 for no gain (97-D.Orange). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-J.Allen left guard to MIN 37 for 1 yard (97-D.Orange).

Week 9

The rest of the week

Every week →
Jaguars at Ravens, Game DNA33@10Bengals at Falcons, Game DNA34@17Browns at Saints, Game DNA22@23Cowboys at Colts, Game DNA27@23Broncos at Panthers, Game DNA26@21Lions at Dolphins, Game DNA19@9Rams at Commanders, Game DNA20@13Giants at Eagles, Game DNA19@11Jets at Chiefs, Game DNA12@35Texans at Chargers, Game DNA44@22Raiders at 49ers, Game DNA17@38Cardinals at Seahawks, Game DNA3@17Packers at Patriots, Game DNA45@27Buccaneers at Bears, Game DNA24@27