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Week 10
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WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 9 · 2026Jaguars 33 · 10 Ravens

132 plays, one strand. Jaguars won without the lead ever changing hands; Jaguars peaked at 100% to win, Ravens at 58%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for BAL, down for JAX, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Jaguars peaked at 100% to win, Ravens at 58%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Ravens win, play by play. High = BAL in control, low = JAX in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for BAL on offense, down for JAX; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Ravens ↑Jaguars ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDTDINTFUMINTTDTDBAL ↑ HOMEJAX ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: JAX on the left, BAL on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
JAXBAL
55Plays54
320Yards227
2Explosive plays1
3Offensive TDs1
1Turnovers2
100%Peak win prob.58%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
JAXTD77yBALFG30yJAXFG42yBALPunt42yJAXPunt20yBALPunt16yJAXTD85yBALPunt13yBALINT1yJAXFG-1yBALPunt16yJAXPunt10yBALPunt-1yJAXFUM8yBAL–9yJAXFG30yBALINT0yJAXFG8yJAXTD32yBALTD65yJAXPunt9yBAL–36y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 4.1 expected points for Jaguars.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 14:17 · JAX · Completion

    16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 87-N.Boerkircher to BAL 21 for 52 yards (44-M.Humphrey).

    +4.1 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 6:36 · BAL · Field goal

    45-J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

    +2.3 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 1:06 · JAX · Touchdown

    16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 11-P.Washington for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +5.2 EP
  4. 4
    Q3 13:49 · BAL · Interception

    12-J.Fagnano pass short left intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 1-M.Brown at BAL 32. 1-M.Brown to BAL 26 for 6 yards (43-J.Hill).

    −3.9 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 5:15 · JAX · Fumble lost

    16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 12-T.Hunter to JAX 48 for -3 yards (24-M.Starks). FUMBLES (24-M.Starks), RECOVERED by BAL-40-T.Buchanan at

    −5.7 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 3:07 · BAL · Run

    89-M.Andrews FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 41, and recovers at JAX 41.

    −3.2 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 13:28 · BAL · Interception

    12-J.Fagnano pass short left intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis at BAL 27. 2-J.Lewis to BAL 23 for 4 yards (4-Z.Flowers).

    −5.9 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 7:26 · BAL · Touchdown

    76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 43-J.Hill right tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +5.4 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
33@10Week 9

If the 36-yard kick had missed

Ravens after the play38%what really happened
RavensJaguarsthe rest never happened

Q1 2:04 39-C.Little 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

Week 9

The rest of the week

Every week →
Bengals at Falcons, Game DNA34@17Browns at Saints, Game DNA22@23Cowboys at Colts, Game DNA27@23Broncos at Panthers, Game DNA26@21Lions at Dolphins, Game DNA19@9Rams at Commanders, Game DNA20@13Giants at Eagles, Game DNA19@11Jets at Chiefs, Game DNA12@35Texans at Chargers, Game DNA44@22Raiders at 49ers, Game DNA17@38Cardinals at Seahawks, Game DNA3@17Packers at Patriots, Game DNA45@27Buccaneers at Bears, Game DNA24@27Bills at Vikings, Game DNA23@6