Week 9 · 2026Rams 20 · 13 Commanders
156 plays, one strand. Rams won after 1 lead change; Rams peaked at 98% to win, Commanders at 83%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for WSH, down for LAR, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom line1 lead change; Rams peaked at 98% to win, Commanders at 83%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Commanders win, play by play. High = WSH in control, low = LAR in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for WSH on offense, down for LAR; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: LAR on the left, WSH on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.6 expected points for Commanders.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q2 15:00 · WSH · Completion+2.6 EP
5-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-R.White to LA 7 for 45 yards (3-K.Curl; 48-O.Speights).
- 2Q2 4:39 · LAR · Completion+2.8 EP
9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to WAS 44 for 12 yards (20-Q.Martin).
- 3Q2 2:46 · LAR · Fumble lost−4.1 EP
9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to WAS 41 for no gain (45-K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (45-K.Chaisson), touched at WAS 42, RECOVERED by W
- 4Q2 2:20 · WSH · Fumble lost−4.3 EP
5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 44 for -6 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett), RECOVERED by LA-48-O.Speights at WAS 46. 48-O.Speights to
- 5Q2 1:33 · LAR · Completion+2.9 EP
9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to WAS 23 for 15 yards (39-J.Reaves; 23-T.Amos).
- 6Q3 6:03 · LAR · Interception−2.8 EP
9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 12-P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by 25-N.Cross at LA 27. 25-N.Cross to LA 27 for no gain (12-P.Nacua).
- 7Q3 0:19 · LAR · Completion+2.9 EP
9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua to WAS 17 for 19 yards (20-Q.Martin).
- 8Q4 2:31 · WSH · Sack−2.3 EP
5-J.Daniels sacked at 50 for -12 yards (95-M.Garrett).
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the Commanders had converted that fourth-and-17
Q4 2:00 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 12-V.Jefferson (1-E.Forbes).