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InjuryQuentin Lake: Active → Cleared12 h agoWeek 9 · 2026Packers 45 · 27 Patriots
147 plays, one strand. Packers won without the lead ever changing hands; Packers peaked at 100% to win, Patriots at 55%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for NE, down for GB, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Packers peaked at 100% to win, Patriots at 55%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Patriots win, play by play. High = NE in control, low = GB in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for NE on offense, down for GB; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Patriots ↑
Packers ↓The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: GB on the left, NE on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 5.9 expected points against Patriots.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 14:32 · NE · Interception−5.9 EP
10-D.Maye pass deep left intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at 50. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at NE 14 for 36 yards (65-M.P
- 2Q1 10:50 · GB · Completion+3.3 EP
10-J.Love pass deep right to 0-M.Golden to NE 18 for 49 yards (31-K.Byard).
- 3Q2 9:30 · NE · Touchdown+4.2 EP
10-D.Maye pass deep left to 38-R.Stevenson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 4Q2 5:47 · NE · Interception−3.7 EP
10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 82-E.Raridon INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 29. 29-X.McKinney to GB 31 for 2 yards (85-H.Henry).
- 5Q2 5:05 · GB · Completion+3.3 EP
10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson to NE 2 for 43 yards (7-C.Davis). Penalty on NE-7-C.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. New
- 6Q3 10:57 · GB · Touchdown+3.1 EP
10-J.Love pass short left to 83-S.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 7Q3 4:27 · NE · Fumble lost−4.8 EP
10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 41 for 4 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 25-K.Nixon). FUMBLES (58-I.McDuffie), touched at NE 42, RE
- 8Q3 4:16 · GB · Touchdown+4.0 EP
10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
45@27Week 9Changes the winnerIf that interception had fallen incomplete
Q1 14:32 10-D.Maye pass deep left intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at 50. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at NE 14 for 36 yards (65-M.Pryor).
22@23
12@35
44@22
17@38
24@27
23@6