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The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 9 · 2026Raiders 17 · 38 49ers

126 plays, one strand. 49ers won without the lead ever changing hands; Raiders peaked at 45% to win, 49ers at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for SF, down for LV, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Raiders peaked at 45% to win, 49ers at 100%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that 49ers win, play by play. High = SF in control, low = LV in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for SF on offense, down for LV; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
49ers ↑Raiders ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDTDTDTDINTTDINTFUMFUMTDINTINTSF ↑ HOMELV ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: LV on the left, SF on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
LVSF
47Plays66
240Yards417
4Explosive plays6
2Offensive TDs4
5Turnovers1
45%Peak win prob.100%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
SFTD64yLVPunt7ySFTD100yLVTD57ySFTD84yLVFG11ySF–-8yLVINT0yLVTD69ySFINT14yLVFUM5ySF–9yLVFUM39ySFTD80yLVINT43ySFFG63yLVINT9ySF–11y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 8.1 expected points against Raiders.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q3 14:54 · LV · Interception

    8-K.Cousins to LV 24 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at LV 23. 8-K.Cousins pass intended for 1-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Dugger at LV

    −8.1 EP
  2. 2
    Q3 8:01 · SF · Interception

    13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 31-T.Stukes at LV 43. 31-T.Stukes to SF 31 for 26 yards (75-C.Colby).

    −6.0 EP
  3. 3
    Q3 7:41 · LV · Fumble lost

    8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to SF 26 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner; 0-R.Green). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at SF 26, RECOVERED

    −5.2 EP
  4. 4
    Q3 5:34 · SF · Run

    13-B.Purdy up the middle to SF 40 for no gain (94-F.Fatukasi).

    −3.5 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 4:19 · LV · Fumble lost

    8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 87-M.Mayer to SF 1 for 24 yards (20-U.Stout; 27-J.Brown). FUMBLES (20-U.Stout), RECOVERED by SF-54-F.Warner

    −4.3 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 0:44 · SF · Touchdown

    13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 17-J.Watkins for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +4.2 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 13:06 · LV · Completion

    8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at SF 1 for 33 yards (27-J.Brown).

    +4.2 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 12:01 · LV · Interception

    8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 1-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Green [92-O.Odighizuwa] at SF -5. Touchback. SF-0-R.Green was injured

    −4.9 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
17@38Week 9Changes the winner

If the Raiders had stopped that fourth-and-2

Raiders after the play40%what really happened
49ersRaidersthe rest never happened

Q1 13:26 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to LV 41 for 4 yards (31-T.Stukes).

Week 9

The rest of the week

Every week →
Jaguars at Ravens, Game DNA33@10Bengals at Falcons, Game DNA34@17Browns at Saints, Game DNA22@23Cowboys at Colts, Game DNA27@23Broncos at Panthers, Game DNA26@21Lions at Dolphins, Game DNA19@9Rams at Commanders, Game DNA20@13Giants at Eagles, Game DNA19@11Jets at Chiefs, Game DNA12@35Texans at Chargers, Game DNA44@22Cardinals at Seahawks, Game DNA3@17Packers at Patriots, Game DNA45@27Buccaneers at Bears, Game DNA24@27Bills at Vikings, Game DNA23@6